Big 10 Strength of Schedule Confirms Ohio State & Michigan’s Fate in Playoffs Scenario

Going by the College Football Playoffs trends, just racking up wins and keeping the defeat count low is often not enough to punch the playoff tickets. They also weigh how “battle-tested” teams are. Beating strong opponents counts more than blowing out weaker teams. And what’s the bar for evaluating the difficulty level of the test? We have got SOS, the Strength of Schedule. The lower the number, the more brutal the schedule is. So, at the end of the run, the CFP fate rests on a couple of questions: Who faced tougher competition? Who has quality wins? Who is more prepared to compete against elite teams in the playoffs? Given the current standings, Ryan Day’s Ohio State and Sherrone Moore’s Michigan are going to savor the sweet fruits of their toil. 

Right now, Moore’s boys are coming off with two wins and a loss. They secured a blowout win against Central MI after losing against Oklahoma and securing a victory over New Mexico. The defending champions, Ohio State, are running strong with three back-to-back victories over Ohio Bobcats, Grambling St., and Texas.

On September 16, SEC Numbers Guy tweeted, “Strength of Schedule of All Ranked Big Ten Teams:-Ohio State 49 -Penn State 134 -Oregon 99-Illinois 101 -Indiana 117 -Michigan 30. Mizzou has the easiest SOS in the SEC at 92nd. They would rank 8/18 in the Big Ten.” Now, what does this hint for Moore and Day’s squad? Going by the list, Moore’s Michigan stands 30th, which means they are facing one of the toughest schedules nationally. Even Ohio State, standing at 49, will also have to face a strong slate of opponents.  

Now the situation goes like this. James Franklin’s Penn State, having the weakest schedule in the Big Ten conference, might end up with a 9-3 record. But in that case, Moore’s Wolverines (30) and Day’s Buckeyes (49) have a clear SOS advantage. Just three of Michigan’s opponents ended last season with winning records, and two of those were only due to bowl wins. 

Ohio State was the lone team to surpass seven victories. So, in case Moore’s boys finish 10-2, their schedule will face heavy scrutiny in the College Football Playoff conversation. Their 12-game slate features storied names like Oklahoma, Nebraska, USC, Washington, Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Ohio State. Had it been the previous season, the lineup Moore’s program is facing would have been crowned as the toughest in the country.

For the Buckeyes, the key matchups include No. 1 Texas, No. 2 Penn State on Nov. 1, and the season finale at Michigan, which has beaten Ohio State four straight times. Day and co. face three of their first four Big Ten foes on the road: Washington, Illinois, and Wisconsin, after hosting Minnesota. Now, what about the Moore vs Day face-off?

Predictions for the big face-off between Sherrone Moore and Ryan Day

Well, we have seen how the face-off against the Wolverines holds heavy importance in the Buckeyes squad. For the last four years, Moore’s squad did not let Ohio State post a smile. Having the fourth loss in the last four years in 2024, Day had to pay heavy costs. While “Fire Ryan Day” calls started to heat up, even the head coach’s family was not spared from the threats.

After all, Moore will be hosting Day’s squad at the Memorial Stadium on November 29. CFP pundit Van Lathan of The Ringer had already put on his ‘take me to the future’ glasses and predicted, “Michigan beats Ohio State again this year.” But FOX CFB exposed the other side of the story, hinting at Moore’s Wolverines landing in deep soup. Here came a stark contrast. Day’s army has 14 five-stars, 55 four-stars, and 11 three-stars. But the situation is a bit concerning in Moore’s squad.

The Wolverines’ talent pool only features one 5-star, 46 four-stars, and 38 three-stars. And guess what? Sherrone Moore’s 5-star Bryce Underwood is not 100% perfect. Against Oklahoma, the 5-star had only one designed run and finished with negative rushing yards. But it’s the same Underwood who came up with 114 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns, and a passing score against Central MI. So, Michigan coach Biff Poggi had some advice for Moore’s quarterback before the Nebraska game: “Push the ball, play hard, be creative, be you. If he does that, we’re gonna be okay.” Now, let’s see what the road to the CFP has in store for them.