Ohio State is one of those programs where a natty is the expectation each season, regardless. Anything less than 10-2 is viewed as a disappointment. Since 2001, the Buckeyes have finished with more than two regular-season losses only three times. However, after skimming through Ohio State’s 2026 schedule, NFL vet Bobby Carpenter straight-up wonders if there is even any betting value left on Ohio State.

“I have to wonder, because, Steele, they’ve got like the toughest schedule in all the country. If you look at the other teams that are up there, they play three of the other, what, top six?” Bobby Carpenter said on his Bobby Carpenter Show.

Looking at their schedule, 2026 might be the year where the Buckeyes need to be looking over their shoulder each week. According to Phil Steele’s and pretty much the majority of analysts’ metrics, the Buckeyes are officially staring down the single toughest schedule in the entire country. Ohio State is scheduled to play three of the other top six teams with the best national championship odds (+550).

“You have Texas there at third, they play Oregon as well at fourth, and then Indiana at six, so Ohio State plays three of the teams with the best odds to ultimately win a national championship.”

Not only that, but when you count them up, the Buckeyes are scheduled to play seven teams that will probably start the season ranked in the Top 25.

The venue split for these heavyweight fights puts Ohio State at a major disadvantage. On September 12, 2026, the Buckeyes fly down to Austin to face the Texas Longhorns in front of over 100,000 fans at Darrell K Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium. After beating Texas in their last two meetings and ending their playoff and national title hopes, Steve Sarkisian is now waiting with a score to settle and a $40 million roster. Carpenter believes facing a team like Texas this early removes the usual three-week “cupcake” stretch teams use to settle new starters.

The travel demands and physical toll get even crazier for the Buckeyes at Big 10. Ohio State has to make a grueling 2,200-mile cross-country flight to Los Angeles to play the USC Trojans at the LA Coliseum. If that wasn’t enough, they also have back-to-back road tests at Iowa’s Kinnick Stadium and Indiana’s Memorial Stadium. The chances of them coming out alive each time are a pretty tall ask.

Ohio State insider CFB Sam weighed in with his perspective and some worrying numbers. Sam explained, “In my metrics, Ohio State’s schedule is as far away from the number two schedule in America as the number two schedule in America is as far away from the number twelve schedule. That’s the gap between number one and number two, right?”

The Buckeyes end their away schedule at Nebraska right before their final legendary showdown with Michigan at home. Not going to lie, it is a grueling stretch that will test their depth and mental toughness.

Bobby Carpenter believes Ohio State can reach double-digit marks

Because the schedule is such a minefield, the oddsmakers in Las Vegas are setting a very interesting line for the team’s success. Bobby thinks the official over/under win total might sit right at 9.5 wins.

Despite all the warning signs, the crazy travel, and the threat of these tough road trips, Bobby is still keeping the faith in Columbus.

“I think anybody would still look at this and say, hey, odds are for them to win 10… I still feel like I can’t imagine Ohio State not winning double-digit games, given everything that’s going on.”

Even with a historic scheduling gap separating them from the rest of the country, the former Buckeye LB is banking on the sheer talent of the roster to pull through.