“We deserved to lose. … I thought overall, our body of work on offense was not very good today,” said Brent Venables after Oklahoma’s 16-12 win over Houston last year. After a win against Tulane in the next game, Oklahoma accumulated 7 losses in the season, signaling that Venables didn’t learn much from that Houston game, a team that finished with 4 wins that season. Can we see the 2023 heroics again, or is Brent Venables bound to slip into deeper mediocrity? If that happens, it seems not much could be done to give Venables more chances, as per Yahoo Sports’ Ross Dellenger.

Before we get into the analysis of Brent Venables’ chances this season, it’s clear that luck hasn’t really been on his side. Oklahoma’s schedule is one of the toughest out there, with tough games against Michigan, Auburn, Texas, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee (away), Alabama (away), Missouri, and finishing up with LSU. If they slip up even once, it could really set Oklahoma back and put Brent Venables’ job at risk.

Ross Dellenger predicted teams to get back on the ‘firing spree’ as they will have enough financial resources by then to pull the plug on coaches giving consistently bad results. And among them, Brent Venables, despite his $32 million buyout, is third on Dellenger’s list to be fired if things go awry. “Longtime AD Joe Castiglione, who hired Venables, is retiring this year. That buyout number may keep the coach employed in Norman if things don’t get too bad,” wrote Dellenger. Moreover, it’s not whether Brent Venables has a ‘weak’ roster.

For instance, Oklahoma is easily the team to have the best D-line in the country. Even ESPN analyst Cole Cubelic quickly jumped on the idea of that, calling the Sooners’ D-line “by far the best D-line in the SEC by a landslide.” Players like Damonic Williams, Gracen Halton, Kip Lewis, and Kendal Daniels bolster Cubelic’s claim. But Oklahoma’s defense has always been decent (ranked 19th nationally in total defense last year), including its D-line. The problem that the offense had in 2024 (finished last year 113th nationally in total offense) is where changes need to come.

Ben Arbuckle arrives as the team’s new offensive coordinator, along with John Mateer, bolstering the squad coming after passing 3,139 and rushing a whopping 826 yards last year with Washington State. Apart from that, receivers like Isaiah Sategna III (491 yards last year) and Deion Burks (874 yards in the last two years) provide that playmaking edge that the offense would need. Moreover, players like Troy Everett, Jacob Sexton, and Derek Simmons’ experience in the O-line will help protect John Mateer, giving immense hope for the 2025 season. The only problem seems then is the schedule!!

Tough schedule won’t be an excuse for Brent Venables amid souring sentiment

FanDuel has set Oklahoma to have a 6.5-win season, with CBS analyst Josh Callaway signaling 7 wins to be the “floor” with 8-9 wins needed to please the fans. But Venables, who already has accumulated 2 losing seasons, would most probably be fired for a third one, which has been a precedent for Oklahoma fans and administrators in their history. The $32 million buyout could either be a lifeboat and give Venables another chance (less expected) or could give him a golden parachute, like how Jimbo Fisher got with Texas A&M.

“Brent Venables is the hottest seat in college football right now. Two losing seasons in three years at Oklahoma? That’s not going to cut it with that fanbase, SEC or not,” said Brad Crawford of 247 Sports. While an anonymous Oklahoma booster said to ON3 about potentially firing Brent Venables. “We love Brent’s passion, but we’re not paying $34.9 million to keep losing to Texas and Navy. This is Oklahoma, not Tulsa.” 

All in all, it seems the fan and booster sentiment at Oklahoma is signaling towards a potential firing if Brent Venables doesn’t come up with the results. Maybe the tough schedule could be an excuse, but even with that, at least 7-8 wins would be needed for the head coach to keep his job at a program that is fed up with losses. Moreover, Venables’ $51.6 million contract, which was extended in June 2024, does call for greater scrutiny for results. And that’s why the 2025 season would be pivotal for the Sooners’ head coach.