Carson Beck and Miami have a lot of work to do this summer. He brings a wealth of pedigree with him from Georgia, where he led one of the most efficient offenses in the country, but he lacks real chemistry with this new team. The Canes are riding high off a 10-win campaign, but what comes next feels uncertain. We’re going to assume that the teams that were the best last season will be the best this season, and that’s going to bear out in most instances. Still, there’s something uneasy about Miami’s footing—especially with a new QB, a retooled receiving corps, and the pressure of expectations weighing on their backs.

Miami won 10 games last season since joining the ACC in 2004 and had the No. 1 scoring offense in the country (43.9 points per game). And that was significant progress from Cristobal’s 5-7 and 7-6 campaigns in the first two years on the job. But the gaps are still evident. Remember the three-game loss in their last four games? Brutal. To top that, defensive coordinator Lance Guidry was fired as well. Another blow delivered to them was Cam Ward’s jetting off to the NFL. And now as the upcoming season looms, analysts paint a picture of might turn into reality.

ESPN’s SP+ model is rarely forgiving, and this offseason, it didn’t hand the Canes a participation trophy. Instead, the Miami Hurricanes fell under its “teams most likely to sustain 2024 gains” section. No massive jump, no sudden fall—just survival at the top. Miami is projected to be 12th in SP+ entering the fall, down slightly from its No. 10 finish last season. The math says their gains might stick, but just barely. Playoff hopes? Flip a coin. It’s not a shot at Miami’s ceiling; it’s a reminder of how hard it is to stay elite.

In 2024: 10–3, 10th (+21.6). And for 2025, the projection (as of May) is 9.2 average wins, 12th (+18.8). A quote from Bill Connelly’s ACC preview painted the big picture clearly: “After a dismal first season in charge — Miami fell to 5-7 and 71st in SP+ in 2022 — things have improved dramatically. The Canes jumped to 7-6 and 28th in 2023, and even with a defense that was actively working against the team for half the season, they improved further, to 10-3 and 10th in SP+, last season.”

That 10-win leap last fall was as much about offensive fireworks as it was surviving defensive leaks. We all saw that the Canes were not good at zone coverage either. There were several instances of receivers going in motion before the snap that resulted in someone being left uncovered. However, things might look different this time around. With Carson Beck taking the reins, the margin for error is razor-thin.

Carson Beck, for all his clean footwork, ball placement, and processing speed, is entering a new locker room with no earned trust yet. Further, Connelly warned, “I like what Miami will have in the trenches, and despite the occasional INTs, [Georgia transfer Carson] Beck is a very good QB. But Miami will need the teardowns in the receiving corps and secondary to stick. I’m pretty sure the latter will, but I’m not sure Beck will have enough strong pass catchers.” In other words: great signal caller, shaky targets. And without that symmetry, the offense may take a step back.

That’s the central gamble in Coral Gables. Miami’s 2024 identity was powered by its offense—an explosive, top-15 unit built around clean pockets and play-action strikes. If that machine sputters even a little, can the defense step in and stabilize the program? The Hurricanes are betting big that it will. “This one’s definitely more about sustaining gains than prepping for another surge. You can only rise so much higher than 10th,” Connelly wrote. “But I do think Mario Cristobal’s Hurricanes have a chance of matching last year’s general quality, albeit in a more balanced way: The offense will almost certainly regress a bit while the defense improves. If the latter matches or outpaces the former, voila, sustained gains!”

That hope hinges on one name in particular: Rueben Bain Jr. With a cleaner bill of health and more help in the front seven, Bain has All-American potential in 2025. After all, he finished the last season with 23 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss, and 3.5 sacks despite missing four games due to injury. And with the next season around the corner, his twitch off the edge and violent hand usage make him the Canes’ most disruptive player. The secondary also got a turbo boost.

One name to circle: Zechariah Poyser, an ultra-aggressive safety out of Jacksonville State. He’s not just physical—he’s fearless, as he posted 75 solo tackles (47 solo), three interceptions, and eight tackles for loss. And that edge could reshape Miami’s back-end play, something they sorely lacked late last fall.

The Hurricanes don’t need fireworks this time around. They need structure. A smarter offense. A fast, pissed-off defense. And with a new QB? Hope is all we have.

Carson Beck’s $3M burden

Carson Beck’s honeymoon in Miami is officially over before it’s even started. For all the hype that followed him from Georgia, Beck hasn’t exactly been breaking a sweat with his new receivers—and that’s a big deal when chemistry is the name of the game. According to CBS Sports’ Chris Hummer, “Beck is one of the highest, if not the highest, paid players in college football with a NIL deal of over $3 million a year. He’s the player Miami banked its 2025 hopes upon.”

That’s a fat paycheck for a QB who, so far, hasn’t logged many meaningful reps with his teammates. The challenge? Developing on-field timing and trust with a mostly untested group of receivers—and doing it in a hurry. “He also really didn’t throw much in the spring while recovering from UCL surgery,” Hummer noted. “That means fall camp is the first time, at least in organized team activities, that Beck will take command. That’s a challenge given one of the tasks in front of him is developing rhythm and timing with an unproven group of Hurricane wide receivers.”

Last year’s 10-win campaign gave Miami fans a sugar rush, but now comes the hard part—sustaining it. Beck may be “the guy” on paper, but if he can’t fast-track that chemistry and bounce back from surgery with real command.