Exceeding expectations but still on shaky ground — that’s the story for Clark Lea and the Vanderbilt Commodores. They finished the regular season with an impressive 10–2 record, far surpassing what many predicted. Even now, they stand on the edge of something big yet uncertain. While they may be preparing for the worst, one analyst is fighting for their case in the CFP.

“Does @VandyFootball deserve a spot in the College Football Playoffs?” tweeted the Vanderbilt University page on December 6, resharing Tim Groseclose’s Common Opponent Analysis.

“My second favorite college football team, Vanderbilt, may be getting a raw deal from the CFP committee—like, maybe it should be ranked as high as 6th, rather than 14th,” wrote the sports economics scholar.

Vanderbilt closed the regular season with a 45-24 win over Tennessee but still fell short of a top-10 ranking, trailing the BYU Cougars, Miami Hurricanes, and Texas Longhorns. The tweet was followed by a lengthy explanation. 

Groseclose has taken the Oklahoma Sooners as an example to give a comparative analysis of where Lea and Co. stand. Both teams shared seven common opponents. Vanderbilt narrowly lost to Texas by 3 points, but accounting for the home-field advantage, estimated at 3 points, the teams would be even on a neutral field.

Oklahoma lost to Texas 23-6 on a neutral field, showing Texas was 17 points better. Comparing the two results, the “Common Opponent Analysis” suggests that Vanderbilt would be roughly 17 points better than Oklahoma. Excluding Vanderbilt, 24 teams make up the CFP top 25. Ten of them share at least one common opponent with the Commodores. 

Vanderbilt and Oklahoma shared seven common opponents: Texas, Auburn, South Carolina, Tennessee, Alabama, Missouri, and LSU, with the Common Opponent Method rating Vanderbilt 2.86 points better than Oklahoma. Against Alabama, which had five shared foes (Missouri, Tennessee, South Carolina, LSU, and Auburn), Vanderbilt comes out 3 points ahead.

Ole Miss, with three common opponents (Kentucky, LSU, and South Carolina), fares worse in comparison, as the method rates Vanderbilt 10.33 points better. The Commodores’ strong Common Opponent ratings look even better when you factor in the Alabama Crimson Tide getting steamrolled by Georgia (7-28).

If a powerhouse like Alabama can stumble, it shows the Commodores might be closer to the SEC elite than anyone thought, making their 10-2 season even more impressive. If considering this analysis model is not enough to bolster the Commodores’ case, SEC commissioner Greg Sankey, too, jumped into the mission. 

“I actually think we deserve seven,” Sankey said. “I think the seven teams that are in the top 14, half of the top 14 teams are from the SEC.

Five SEC squads currently project into the playoff, yet Sankey argues the Longhorns and Commodores belong, too. Vanderbilt sits at No. 14, and Texas at No. 13 with a 9-3 record. Both are teetering on the bubble. But more support pours in Vanderbilt’s way. 

Analysts weigh in on Vanderbilt Commodores’ playoff hopes

Lea and his boys pushed for their chance to play another game to woo the College Football Playoff committee. 

“We’ll play one through 12 anywhere, any place,” Diego Pavia sounded desperate. “Just give us a chance. That’s all we want.”

A 13th game is allowed only with a Hawaii matchup. That meant scrambling to find a willing bubble team, locking a site, and organizing a last-minute Hawaii trip. Lea even asked his squad to keep their bags packed. A FOX reporter only fueled his enthusiasm.

“I don’t see the downside to this from Clark Lea. You know a playoff isn’t happening unless another impressive win is obtained,” said Trey Wallace. “Miami, Utah, Texas? I know, save the crazy replies, but he’s willing to fight for CFP.”

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“If this is true… Need Vandy @ ND & Texas @ Miami this weekend,” added ESPN reporter Tone Digs.

The Commodores’ Cinderella story hit a snag. ESPN gave them a 6% shot before, and now a 10-2 SEC team isn’t even on the CFP radar. Vanderbilt, finishing 10-2 in the toughest conference in college football, boasts a No. 11 strength of record (SOR) and a No. 22 strength of schedule (SOS). 

Among all teams in CFP contention, Vanderbilt ranks fifth in SOS, ahead of programs like Miami, BYU, and Utah. So obviously, Lea is upset.

“I’m just frustrated. We attempted to state our case,” said the Commodores’ head coach, via ESPN Radio. 

The takeaway: Vanderbilt’s victories carry no weight, and teams that lose to them get penalized. The Committee isn’t seeing them as a team that validates a quality loss. Time to see how the final verdict shakes out.