It’s officially crunch time, and ESPN’s playoff odds board is out. While Ohio State and Indiana are basically stamped in at 99%, there’s one shadow squad nobody saw coming. Even analyst Colin Cowherd straight-up slept on them. And he was not shy to accept his mistake.

On the November 19th episode of his podcast, the analyst said, “I am shocked at how good Oklahoma’s doing.” He added, “One, I didn’t know if Venables was a head coach. Two, the state doesn’t produce a lot of players. Three, Lincoln Riley left. I look up at Oklahoma, and I’m like, ‘I’ve watched them play Bama back-to-back years. They’ve disassembled them.’ Of all the teams that join conferences, my bad. Oklahoma looks and plays like an SEC team.”

Brent Venables’ Oklahoma Sooners now stand with 54% chances. That’s something Cowherd did not see coming. Going into Saturday, November 15th morning, Oklahoma’s CFP odds were barely alive at 23.6%. To crash the bracket, they needed to survive a Tuscaloosa game and stay perfect the rest of the way. The FPI gave them just a 12.3% shot at threading that needle. The water was already flowing above Venables’ and the Sooners’ heads. 

Oklahoma had Ole Miss on the ropes three weeks ago, but couldn’t land the knockout punch in the fourth. That loss, paired with a flat showing against Texas, gave the Sooners their second stumble of the season. But with their season on life support, they’ve rattled off two straight wins, including a 23-21 statement over No. 4 Alabama.

Now the Sooners have kicked the door wide open for a CFP run. Win out to hit 10-2, and Oklahoma’s playoff odds rocket to 97%- with a 76% shot at hosting a first-round showdown as the No. 8 seed. The Sooners fans might be digging through old podcast videos to find one where Joel Klatt made a bitter prediction. 

Even before the 2025 season pulled the curtains, the analyst refused to envision seeing Oklahoma with a playoff ticket. Back in August, Klatt said, “Here’s the problem. If they had a more favorable schedule like Auburn’s? I think I would probably pick them (as a CFP sleeper) right there. But I can’t, in good conscience, pick them with what their schedule is.” While Venables can see a CFP ticket awaiting them at the end of the road, Oklahoma will have to cross the roadblocks that come in the way. 

CFP chair exposed the troubles looming deep in the Oklahoma Sooners squad

As the college football playoffs buzz hits the air, CFP chair Hunter Yurachek shared his take. He did not mince his words and subtly exposed the Oklahoma problems, “Oregon, while their strength of schedule metric may not be as strong as Oklahoma, we felt like they’re a very strong team on both sides of the ball offensively and defensively.” 

Oklahoma’s offense basically survived. Their offense ran on fumes. They had just 212 total yards, marking it their lowest in a Winning game since 2001. Their longest drive was an eight-play drive for 41 yards and a field goal. They weren’t a three-and-out factory, but every attempt to pad the lead fizzled unless the defense or special teams set the table with prime field position. This isn’t exactly the return Oklahoma had in mind following their $4.5 million investment. And here’s the gut punch. $3 million for John Mateer, $1.5 million for Ben Arbuckle.

Looks like something is bothering Brent Venables, too. Oklahoma Sooners’ rushing attack has been a patchwork all year. They’re sitting at 3.8 yards per tote, but John Mateer accounts for a big slice of that, a dangerous way to roll into a showdown with a Mizzou unit that chokes off the run. HC Brent Venables understands that his team’s ground attack will be put to the test at Missouri face-off. If Oklahoma wants a seat at the CFP table, it’s now or never to tighten the screws.