The 2026 season is the year of big coaching changes. More than double digits, specifically 17 coaches, have been replaced in the Power 4 conferences. If you actually take every factor into consideration, Lane Kiffin’s name should be at the top of the “will have the most success in Year 1” list. However, most fans on X are not buying a ticket to Lane Kiffin’s hype train. Instead, they’re all aboard the Florida Gators’ Jon Sumrall train.

On June 21, On3 Football hopped onto its X handle and asked netizens a question. Out of four highly anticipated first-year head coaches, who will crush it in Year 1? The list included head coaches like Kyle Whittingham (Michigan Wolverines), Jon Sumrall (Florida Gators), James Franklin (Virginia Tech), and Lane Kiffin at LSU.

Surprisingly, the majority of them are picking Jon Sumrall over Lane Kiffin.

If you look strictly at the talent between the Tigers and Gators, Kiffin actually has an impeccable head start because he is walking into a situation with an insane $45 million roster. Kiffin locked in the No. 1 transfer portal class in the country, whereas the Gators ranked 12th. On paper, there isn’t any team that has better talent than LSU in the SEC. Needless to say, LSU signed Lane with a top-three head coach salary, which is about $13 million a year.

Because the bar is set so incredibly high for Lane, it is actually much harder for him to achieve what people would look at as a true “Year 1 success.” A popular consensus is that anything less than a national title appearance would be considered a failure. Apparently, the bar isn’t the same for Sumrall.

However, the real bottleneck holding fans back from predicting guaranteed success is LSU’s absolutely brutal 2026 schedule. According to CBS Sports expert Brad Crawford, LSU actually has the third-toughest overall schedule in all of college football. Right off the bat, they play the Clemson Tigers. Dabo Swinney is waiting to settle the score. Then they have the most anticipated game of the season against Kiffin’s former school, Ole Miss, at home. SEC Network’s Peter Burns called for the National Guard’s for September 19 game.

The main reason they are ranked No. 3 in the country by CBS Sports is because of how unfair their individual stretches of games are. Their late-season run against Alabama, Texas, and Tennessee back-to-back-to-back is viewed as a top-three most brutal stretches for any team in America this year. Not to mention, they play the Aggies sometime in between.

Because they play in a conference where literally four or five opponents could easily be playoff contenders, even a $45 million roster can drop a couple of games if they have an off night. However, the Gators’ schedule isn’t a cupcake either. They are somehow on the same spectrum as LSU. They rank as the fifth- or sixth-most difficult schedule. But the only difference is that Jon Sumrall can make the playoffs, and fans would call it a successful season because they haven’t made a playoff appearance yet.

However, giving the benefit of the doubt, the underlying reason folks are not rooting for Lane Kiffin has to be because of his off-field antics.

The fans are picking anybody but Kiffin.

Of the 114 opinions in the comment section, Lane Kiffin’s name was found the least.

The fans even had James Franklin having a better season than Kiffin:

“James Franklin. At least based on how these fan bases will describe success.”

As hypocritical as it may seem, if Franklin wins nine or ten games in a weaker ACC conference, fans will view that as an absolute home run for a first-year coach, whereas that exact same record might get Lane decimated at LSU.

Another fan vouched for Sumrall and the Florida Gators to finish with a double-digit-win season:

“Its tough bc they can all be very successful no excuses. I think in terms of there expectations and improvement from the previous yr it will be Jon Sumrall. Florida can get 10 wins that staff is insanely good.”

The last time the Gators had a double-digit-win season was back in Dan Mullen’s era, when they went 11-2 in 2019. This season, the Gators will play four preseason-ranked teams, including Texas, Georgia, Ole Miss, and Tennessee. If they go 2-2 against these said teams, and there you have your first playoff appearance in program history.

One fan commented: “Year 1? It’s Lane. But Sumrall will have the better resume (before Lane bolts to the NFL)” This fan picked Lane particularly for this season because of the $45 million roster. If Lane Kiffin makes the best of Year 1, there’s only a tiny chance of him getting another $45 million, apparently.

Another fan came in with a hot take: “Watch Lane Kiffin lose at least 4 games this season giving LSU buyers remorse…. calling it.” God forbid, if something like that happens, the outrage would be diabolical. Then again, that’s beyond a stretch.

One fan chimed in for Kiffin’s former apprentice: “It might be Golding overall, but Lane is set to have the best team here.”

Most folks are looking at Golding here. Even after Lane spent $6 million on Sam Leavitt and half a million on Harlem Berry, the Rebels still have the best QB and RB in all of the SEC. So, I wouldn’t be surprised if Golding were to beat Kiffin and end up having a better season than Kiffin.

At the end of the day, a big reason the comment section is pushing back on Lane is simply the drama surrounding how he got the job. He left Ole Miss right before they were supposed to play in the College Football Playoffs, which deeply angered his former fan base. A good portion of the negativity online isn’t even about his coaching ability. It’s just bitter Ole Miss fans who feel betrayed and want to see him fail immediately in Baton Rouge.