The Rose Bowl may feel like familiar turf for the Alabama Crimson Tide. But this chapter comes with a warning for Kalen DeBoer’s squad. It’s all thanks to Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza. A college football analyst is waving the caution flag as the biggest speed bump looms for New Year’s Day.

“Bama can’t rush the passer. It’s a big problem,” said Geoff Schwartz in a conversation with Sammy Panayotovich on the December 22nd episode of the Bear Bets podcast. 

They can’t hit the passer. That doesn’t fare well against Indiana’s offense, in my opinion. Mendoza gets off a spot, maybe gets into a bad situation. But if you let them do what they want, RPO game, play action pass, with those wide receivers, they’re hard to cover.”

Not just Schwartz, the math is flashing warning signs for Alabama. ESPN Analytics pegs the Tide at only a 28.6% win probability, and Jeff Sagarin’s numbers go even further, favoring Indiana with a 66% chance and a 35-19 projected score.

DeBoer’s program has also had its share of rushing struggles this season. On paper, Alabama’s sack-adjusted rushing numbers looked respectable at 3.9 yards per carry against the South Carolina Gamecocks. 

Alabama’s run game hasn’t been the same since Miller’s injuries, with portal turnover likely causing chemistry issues up front. That’s what makes it ironic. By November, DeBoer’s squad ranked third in the SEC in time of possession and No. 14 in the SEC in rushing, two stats that usually go hand in hand.

Mendoza’s statistics further highlight the threat he poses to Alabama’s defense. When comparing the stats with DeBoer’s quarterback, Ty Simpson, Mendoza was the winner in the touchdown pass category with 33 touchdowns, and Simpson had 28.

Indiana’s offense has been rolling too, pouring in 44.3 points per game. They ranked second nationally, averaging 483.8 yards. 

If DeBoer’s squad can’t rush or hit the passer, Mendoza gets to play point guard, carving defenses with RPOs. That’s when Indiana becomes a nightmare to cover. The Tide’s task is simple but challenging.

They have to knock Mendoza off his spot and disrupt the timing. Without that pressure, the game is going to slip out of the Crimson Tide’s grip. 

This might make DeBoer regret not holding onto Justice Haynes tightly. Alabama’s clear No. 2 back behind Miller transferred to the Michigan Wolverines. In Ann Arbor, Haynes alone has racked up more rushing yards than Alabama’s entire running back room combined at 780.

With a lot of things on his plate, DeBoer finally gets some good news. 

Can LT Overton’s return shift Kalen DeBoer’s defensive edge?

Alabama EDGE LT Overton missed the SEC Championship and the CFP first round while dealing with an undisclosed illness. However, all signs indicate he will return to the lineup.

“Back like I never left,” DeBoer’s EDGE wrote while posting a story on Instagram. 

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Since arriving from Texas A&M Aggies, he has grown into a cornerstone of Alabama’s defense. This season, he’s stacked 35 tackles, set career highs with six tackles for loss and four sacks, and helped power the Tide into the CFP quarterfinals.

Timing could not be sweeter for Overton’s return now that DeBoer’s squad is expected to be pushed to a corner by Mendoza and his mates. 

DeBoer bought himself some breathing room as Alabama rallied to survive the CFP first round. Another win in the Rose Bowl quarterfinal could, at least sarcastically, make everyone forget the program’s former all-time great, as Paul Finebaum put it.

“What that meant is that, now, he’s very popular. A win against Indiana in the Rose Bowl – and, Nick Saban who? Kalen DeBoer will own the city of Tuscaloosa,” said the ESPN analyst.

Adding to the pressure on Kalen DeBoer, this Rose Bowl marks 100 years since Alabama’s first national title, which also came in a Rose Bowl win. The question is whether Alabama can flip the script and become the threat, not the hunted, against Indiana.