Hugh Freeze is frozen under the Hot Seat Index, and the Auburn Tigers aren’t exactly roasting marshmallows. When a program misses a bowl game in two of the past three seasons, pressure becomes a luxury no one can afford. Freeze is staring down what might be his final shot at redemption on The Plains. For that to happen, Jackson Arnold—the transfer quarterback with a five-star pedigree and an Elite 11 MVP resume—needs to flex his inner Schwarzenegger and deliver big, fast, and fearlessly.

Even Josh Pate knows this ride or die season boils down to the new QB1. On his Josh Pate College Football Show, he didn’t mince words when diagnosing Auburn’s high-stakes reality. “I’m going to do some ifs here that are pretty irresponsible. If we go back to last year, if Auburn’s bounce-of-ball plays went their way, if the turnover rate was a little bit different… then they would have been a borderline playoff contending team last year.” Sure, that sounds like reaching for ghosts, but Pate’s point was more about potential than pity.

He elaborated, “Recruiting the past three cycles—those classes have been 18th, 10th, and 7th. So there is really good talent baked into this roster. They have a top 10 portal class. It all comes down to Jackson Arnold.” That last line echoes like a drumbeat in Auburn’s locker room. Was last season just a bad oil-and-water fit? Can Arnold reset the gears and show why he was once one of the most coveted signal-callers in the country? If so, Hugh Freeze might just remind everyone that he can still win in the SEC—when paired with the right QB.

Before Jackson Arnold can get comfortable, Auburn’s defense faces a tough Week 1 challenge. They’ll go up against Sawyer Robertson, a transfer from Mississippi State who brings 4,257 career yards to Baylor. He may not be a household name yet, but that could change very quickly. The dual-threat QB has a flair for the dramatic, thriving on chaos and turning busted plays into broken spirits.

Jake Crain of Crain & Company summed it up with wary admiration: “Sawyer Robertson, it’s the improvisation stuff that worries me from an Auburn defensive-to-him standpoint.” He’s not wrong. On-the-fly brilliance has become Robertson’s calling card, and Auburn’s defense will need to be rock-solid from the jump. Otherwise, Arnold might be forced into a shootout before he’s even unpacked his locker.

The anxiety swirling around this Auburn team isn’t just from fan fatigue. It’s statistical. Auburn has posted losing records for four straight seasons, dropping 28 games in that span—the worst stretch since they went 9-29 between 1947 and 1950. When Ralph “Shug” Jordan took over in 1951, he rebuilt the program into a consistent national contender. Hugh Freeze, for all his offensive acumen, is now staring down a make-or-break season in Jordan’s long shadow.

Just win—while that sounds like a simple catchphrase, for Auburn, it’s now their only path forward. But what truly counts as a win for a team that’s faced years of tough SEC opponents and inconsistent coaching? Auburn has only hit double-digit wins 14 times since 1951. By contrast, Alabama has done it 18 times in the last 25 years. That’s not just a gap—it’s a canyon.

This is Auburn. The Tigers thrive in chaos. As Pate said, “Auburn doesn’t win when they got high expectations. They win when they got no expectations.” And maybe that’s the one thing Freeze has going for him. No one’s betting on Auburn in 2025. Which is exactly when Auburn tends to sneak up and bite.

Hugh Freeze’s big excuse has an expiration date

Auburn’s Week 1 game against Baylor will quickly show if they’ve truly solved their problems. Any progress made under Hugh Freeze will show up early. And if the same old problems come crawling back? Well, that’ll speak volumes too. But Freeze isn’t backing away from what he walked into.

“Look, I inherited a program that didn’t have a Top 25 recruiting class for 4 years,” Freeze said during The Next Round podcast. “We’ve had now 2 full recruiting classes, both of them ranked in the Top 10. I think 1 more, then your roster looks complete.” You can almost hear the sigh of a coach who’s had to build with duct tape and prayer. But now? The materials are looking premium.

AD John Cohen is singing the same tune. In an interview with ESPN, he said, “There are two ways I evaluate our football program right now: Do we still have the kids in the locker room? And the answer to that was a resounding yes… And No. 2: Are we indeed evaluating and recruiting top-10 classes? And the answer to that is yes.”

In fact, Freeze’s last two classes ranked eighth and sixth, featuring five-star blue-chippers galore. The 2025 class featured signatures from 4 of the state’s 6 highest-ranked recruits. FPI’s 4 softest SEC schedule—four of their opponents had five or more league losses. This might finally be the reset Auburn’s been waiting for.

“Here’s the thing about year three—the pressure is fair in year three because in today’s college football, with all the roster reconstruction mechanisms at your disposal and how well-resourced Auburn University is, you have no excuse to suck in year three,” Josh Pate warned previously. Now, Freeze knows that, and so does Auburn. No more excuses!