“Say what you want about Jackson Arnold. Say what you want about Michael Hawkins Jr., John Mateer is an upgrade.” That’s what On3’s J.D. PicKell said about the Oklahoma Sooners quarterback. Now, John Mateer is riding a huge wave of hype, and it looks like his train might just pull into the Heisman station. But hold on, there’s another train on a parallel track, heading for the same destination, carrying Texas Longhorns star quarterback Arch Manning. The thing is, Arch hasn’t even fully shown what he can do on the field yet. So, get ready for a Mateer vs. Manning Heisman debate that no one saw coming. 

Venables took the big risk to make the big swap from the Big 12 to the SEC. Unfortunately, things did not fall into place. They wrapped up the season with a rather disappointing 6-7 record. Moving into the 2025 season, their quarterback, Mateer, is going to be the big gamble.

Brent Venables’ future will depend on his quarterback. In 2024, for the most part, OU was at a QB disadvantage against almost every team they played, especially in the SEC. Since December, when Coach Venables landed him from the transfer portal, John Mateer has been getting major Heisman buzz. Last season, Mateer led all FBS players with 29 touchdowns, thanks to his skills as both a passer and a runner, gaining 3,139 total yards. However, despite these big numbers, some people still aren’t convinced about his Heisman chances.

On the May 31st episode of That SEC Football podcast, Sooners insider George Stoia sounded underconfident about Venables’ quarterback lifting the trophy. “Let’s be real. He was at Washington State; he didn’t play the competition he’s going to play in the SEC now.”

But soon, things should turn in Mateer’s favor. For instance, Oklahoma’s offensive line is improving, and it’s far better than what he had at Washington State, especially with Ben Arbuckle leading it. Even then, Stoia still lacks confidence in Mateer’s Heisman buzz. “I think he’s going to be really good. He could be a top-five quarterback in the league. Is he a Heisman contender? I don’t know if I would go that far right now.” 

While Stoia isn’t confident about Mateer’s Heisman chances, oddsmakers seem to agree. Currently, Arch Manning is riding high with +700 odds, while Mateer is far behind at +2500. However, Mateer is still more proven than Manning, who just started two of nine games last year. So, when considering a team like Oklahoma, Mike directly asked Stoia: “Would you have him [Mateer] or Arch Manning?”

For Stoia, that decision is going to be a tough one. “Do you want somebody who’s a little bit more proven then you take John Mateer. I think his pairing with Arbuckle makes a lot of sense. Or do you want the guy with tremendous upside, a guy that you know could be a number one pick in the NFL draft next year, obviously the lineage that Arch Manning has….but could also his floor might be lower? I think for Oklahoma in such a pivotal season, you take the guy whose floor is maybe a little bit higher, and that’s John Mateer. So I’m gonna lean Mateer.” But the reality is different. Both the quarterback’s seats are equally hot. 

The point where both John Mateer and Arch Manning are on shaky ground

Carrying a rich NFL legacy, it often works in favor of gaining an NFL spotlight. For Manning, to some extent, that has been the case. Definitely, he has shown his talent on the gridiron. However, his growth has been stunted by being Ewers’ backup. Sarkisian’s quarterback came up with a 66.3% completion rate, racking up 969 yards and 9 touchdowns. However, right now Heisman conversation is secondary for Manning. He will first have to prove himself.

As an anonymous coach shared, “This kid is a legit, Heisman-level package. Provided he produces at that level, the offense will be even better.”

On the other hand, Mateer is setting his feet on hot coal. In 2024, in his first full season as a starter, Jackson Arnold got benched after four games. Michael Hawkins Jr., the true freshman who replaced Jackson Arnold earlier that season, looked very much like a freshman. His numbers were pretty average. 147 yards with just one touchdown in his three primary outings (Tennessee, Auburn, and Texas). That’s when Venables tightened the reins by firing offensive coordinator Seth Littrell. They hired Arbuckle from Washington State. But to make it a full package, they also hired Arbuckle’s quarterback. 

So, one can imagine how long the Sooners fans have been starved of some really good quarterback action. That’s when Josh Pate raised an alarm for John Mateer. “But dude, you think about the pressure on a college football quarterback. John Mateer’s coming in there, and think about the pressure, man…Every one of their potential or expectation levels depend on whether you [Mateer] perform.”

Both Manning and Mateer are definitely in a pressure-cooker situation. One carries a huge legacy name but is still largely unproven on the field. The other comes with a ton of hype in a system that really depends on him to deliver. The big question is: how much will their Heisman odds shift after the 2025 season?