John Mateer’s Heisman Stock Skyrockets as Arch Manning Receives Harsh SEC Reality

The 2025 season was supposed to be the heroic tales of the quarterbacks. This narrative has brought Oklahoma’s John Mateer and Texas Longhorns’ Arch Manning in the same conversation. After all, Mateer had to lift the Sooners from the abyss after being left by Jackson Arnold. On the other hand, Manning had to live up to his last name and take Steve Sarkisian and his team to the top. Right now, where do the two quarterbacks stand? Two weeks into the season, Mateer has racked up 662 yards and 4 touchdowns while Manning stands at 465 yards and 5 touchdowns. This definitely calls for a Heisman discussion. Turns out the Oklahoma quarterback has taken the lead.

“Do you want somebody who’s a little bit more proven. Then you take John Mateer. I think his pairing with Arbuckle makes a lot of sense. Or do you want the guy with tremendous upside, a guy that you know could be a number one pick in the NFL draft next year?” George Stoia captured the Mateer vs Manning Heisman debate perfectly. Now, as per the latest intel, the coveted trophy is likely to slip out of Manning’s hand.

On September 7, Burgers&Brats Podcats tweeted, “🚨: John Mateer is the new Heisman front runner #Sooners #cfb.” It is followed by a screenshot of the 2025 Heisman Trophy odds. According to it, Mateer stands at +800 odds, followed by LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier at +850 odds, Miami’s Carson Beck at +1100 odds, South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers and Manning both at +1300 odds. At the end of the list stands Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith at +1600 odds. 

The Oklahoma quarterback is far from perfect, but the ‘electric’ QB is exactly who Oklahoma needs for a championship rebound. The Sooners’ feat against Michigan stands as the biggest example. He showed off his side-arm throws and mobility, guiding Oklahoma to a 24-13 win over Michigan. After the Wolverines closed the gap in the third quarter, he calmly led a nine-minute drive to seal the game.

Cut to Manning, the hype went off the rails as he struggled against Ohio State. Against Ryan Day’s Buckeyes, he completed 17 of 30 passes for 170 yards and one touchdown. Manning fell prey to Buckeyes’ defensive coordinator Matt Patricia’s play scheme. The old patriot coach confused the quarterback by disguising the defense so Manning thought he was seeing a blitz.

Paul Finebaum slows the Arch Manning hype train

On the July 26th episode of That SEC Podcast, DawgNation insider, Kaylee Mansell, came up with her boldest take. She shared, “My bold take is Arch Manning does not make the Heisman Trophy ceremony.” This was then doubled down by Chris Doering on The Next Round Podcast.  He said, “I got into a little bit of trouble with some Texas fans the other day on the SEC Network. We did a ‘Start, Bench and Cut’ segment with DJ Lagway, Garrett Nussmeier, and Arch Manning, and I had Arch as the guy we’re cutting, and it’s not because I don’t think he’s going to be great, it’s because we’ve seen much more proven success on the field from DJ Lagway and Garrett Nussmeier.”

Forget other analysts, even the one who rooted most diligently for Manning is now going slow about the quarterback’s hype train. That’s none other than the ESPN analyst Paul Finebaum. Even though he is a tough nut to crack, to Finebaum, Manning got the “best player” tag, breaking the long gap after Tim Tebow. Manning strengthened his standing a little against San Jose after being rattled by Ohio State. 

That’s when Finebaum came up with a reality check, “To doing things that we expected of him, and ultimately, Arch is going to be tested when they have a good opponent, which they won’t for another couple of weeks. I suspect he’ll be a lot better.” Meanwhile, what is the burden that the quarterback will be carrying forward?

After a week of heavy criticism, Arch Manning silenced doubts with 153 yards and four TDs in the first 18 minutes, his only slip coming on Texas’ final first-half drive. Most of the fans believe that’s the worst interception through the first two weeks of the 2025 season. All eyes are on Manning to see if he turns setbacks into sparks or slides deeper into doubt.