The 2026 season is the year of meeting expectations for some of the biggest QBs in Power 4, and Ohio State’s very own Julian Sayin is no exception. After failing to deliver in the Cotton Bowl and Big Ten Championship Game, Sayin finds himself on the “Top 10 Players with the Most to Prove in College Football” list alongside none other than Arch Manning himself.

Julian Sayin is heading into his sophomore year with a big target on his back after landing himself in 2nd place, only behind Arch Manning, on Kalshi’s list of players with the most to prove.

The 6-foot-1, 208-pound Carlsbad, California native had a fairytale run as a freshman in 2025, throwing for 3,610 yards and 32 touchdowns against just eight interceptions. He even finished fourth in Heisman Trophy voting and set a mind-blowing Big Ten single-season record by completing 77.0% of his passes.

Yet, despite steering the Buckeyes to a fantastic 12-2 record, prediction markets and sports analysts are keeping him under a microscope because when you play for a team like Ohio State, which is synonymous with national championship expectations every season, the bar gets even higher after falling short.

The main reason he is on this “most to prove” list is because of how his last season ended. When he faced really tough, aggressive defenses, he struggled to keep his cool in the pocket. When he was kept clean in the pocket, his Pro Football Focus (PFF) passing grade was an elite 93.9, but that dropped to a much more human 68.9 when under pressure.

His incredible run hit a major wall late in the year with a tough loss to Indiana in the Big Ten Championship Game, followed by a frustrating 24-14 loss to Mario Cristobal’s Miami in the Cotton Bowl Playoff. Aggressive defensive fronts figured out they could rattle him, dropping his adjusted completion rate down to 74.3% when pressured. Folks at Kalshi want to see if he can keep his cool when things get chaotic.

Another big critique is that he is purely a pocket passer. Last year, he basically didn’t run the ball at all. His zero rushing TDs and negative rushing yards made him predictable, as defenses knew he’d stay in the pocket.

Head coach Ryan Day has made it pretty clear that he wants Sayin to become more than just a pocket passer. He wants him to use his legs, escape pressure, and make plays outside the pocket. The good news is that Sayin seems to be working on it. During Ohio State’s spring game on April 18, he tucked the ball and scored a rushing touchdown, showing signs that he is adding a new dimension to his game.

Unlike Texas quarterback Arch Manning, Sayin doesn’t come from a famous football family. Everything NFL scouts think about him will depend on what he does on the field each week. That means there is very little room for mistakes. Looking at Ohio State’s 2026 schedule, he won’t get many easy games either.

Can Julian Sayin do well this season?

The Buckeyes face one of the toughest schedules in the country with games against Texas, Penn State, USC, Indiana, Michigan, and Iowa. It would be unrealistic to expect Ohio State to get through that schedule without a few hard-fought battles. Right now, Kalshi has Manning as one of the top Heisman favorites at 17%, while Sayin sits at 8%. If he improves the weak parts of his game, many early mock drafts see him as a Top 10 pick in the 2027 NFL Draft. But if he struggles, his draft stock could fall just as quickly.

The biggest thing working in his favor this season is a fresh offensive system under new coordinator Arthur Smith. This new playbook’s expected to protect Sayin much better by using heavy play-action and creating quicker, easier throws to keep him safe. Sayin himself has publicly admitted that the entire locker room is entering the year with a “massive chip on their shoulder” after dropping their final two games last season, so motivation definitely won’t be an issue.

If opposing defenses figure out that he is still mostly a pocket statue who won’t run, they are going to blitz him relentlessly, just like Miami and Indiana did. That could turn into a long afternoon for the Buckeyes, to say the least.