Carrying a 9-4 heartbreak in the 2025 season, the College Football Playoff ticket slipped out of Lincoln Riley’s hands. Fast forward to 2026, and one college football analyst is already smelling trouble for the Trojans’ CFP run this season. Three roadblocks stand tall on Riley and the Trojans’ path to the playoffs. 

“Trying to make the playoffs, it’s going to take two losses or fewer to do that. When I teared this out, tier one to me are our playoff games. What USC has is Indiana, which finished number one defending national champions,” said analyst Jordan Moore on the USC Athletics podcast. “Ohio State number two last year in the College Football Playoff. Oregon number five last year. Trojans need to win at least one of those games.”

That calls for three big blockers in the way. If we take a look at the 2026 schedule, Riley’s program will face off against Oregon on September 26, Ohio State on October 31, and Indiana on November 14. What makes the analyst pick out these three as the blockers for Riley’s squad?

More than 20 years later, USC and Oregon are meeting early, and the Trojans are rolling in with revenge energy after Oregon crushed their Big Ten and CFP run last time out. Not just Moore, even On3 reporter Ari Wasserman tagged it as “the top 10 juiciest games of the 2026 season.”

Riley’s program already showed they belong in the Big Ten by knocking off Michigan and Iowa last season. But now it’s time to level up and prove they are playoff material. And who better to make that statement against than the old Pac-12 foe, the Ducks? Here comes the reality check as the Ducks hold a 4-0 record over the Trojans in the last four meetups. The last time USC tasted a victory was in 2016 in LA. Not to forget, they are returning 14 starters from 2025.

Coming to Ohio State, Day’s program will have a bye week before its Halloween meeting with Riley’s program at the Coliseum. This one’s the headliner in USC’s home lineup as Ohio State is finally pulling up to the Coliseum after an 18-year hiatus. With a full week off, Day’s program will get extra time to dissect Riley’s offense. 

At the same time, a bye week lets the Buckeyes get key players healthy before walking into the Coliseum. So, they will be rolling in rested and charged. Finally, the biggest test arrives for the Trojans in November against Indiana. Talking about a fairytale run? Curt Cignetti’s program pulled off a 16-0 success story. And even with some roster hits, they’re still built to be right back in the title convo.

As long as Rolijah Hardy and Tyrique Tucker are in Indiana, with DC Bryant Haines calling the shots, the Trojans must tread carefully. Meanwhile, the seat gets hot for Riley as he enters the must-win season. 

Pressure piling up for Lincoln Riley

Riley can already feel the heat. He is stepping into his fifth season in Los Angeles, carrying the burden of a 10-year, $110 million contract, which he signed before the 2022 season. But the patience is now running thin for Riley. According to Fox Sports’ list of the 10 highest-paid coaches in college football, Riley is at No. 5. But what did USC actually get in return? They are yet to punch the College Football Playoff ticket under Riley. 

“Win now. We have waited. Now is your chance,” On3 analyst Andy Staples said. “We either need to see you winning now because you’ve been building to this, or we need to see you winning now because you need to prove to us you can win again.”

While the temperature is rising for Riley, the 2026 season is a make-or-break year, since he is believed to have all the resources to succeed. The USC head coach pulled off a great win in the recruiting field by putting up the No. 1-ranked recruiting class in 2026. They have brought in defensive mastermind Gary Patterson to the building, and at the same time, Jayden Maiava is also returning. 

“Texas is my preseason No. 1, but I’ll add USC to this conversation,” said ESPN reporter Heather Dinich, raising expectations for the program.

The situation draws parallels to what Ryan Day faced at Ohio State, where, despite a highly successful tenure, he was under immense pressure to consistently beat Michigan and win a national title.

So, with so many things on Lincoln Riley’s plate, USC’s road to the playoffs depends on the three must-win showdowns against Oregon, Ohio State, and Indiana.