Looks like Mark Stoops and the Kentucky Wildcats have sipped on some bad luck potion. As Stoops starts his 13th season, he needs to turn things around, especially after an 18-20 overall record and a disappointing 7-17 in the SEC since 2022. While many hope a “turnaround” is coming, especially with 26 new transfer players ranking as the 10th-best class nationally, the reality is, these new additions are placing their feet on hot coal. After all, in the 2024 season, Stoops’ boys let the bowl game slip away for the first time in eight seasons. If that’s not concerning enough, here come more worrying signs.

Time for Stoops’ seat to get hot. On the June 23rd episode of That SEC Football Podcast, analyst Steve Lassan sat down in a discussion with SEC Mike. That’s when the segment, ‘Steven’s Weekly Bold Prediction’ came up.

Lassan stated, “Mike, I am gonna take 14 SEC teams to make a Bowl game this year. And I’ll up the ante. How about 5 in the college football playoff?” To which Mike shared, “I love that. Let me guess that they aren’t going to make it are—Mississippi State and Kentucky. Is that accurate?”

Lassan gave it a big nod, stating, “That is accurate, yeah.” That’s where Stoops’ pain begins. At the end of the 2024 season, Mark Stoops nearly left for Texas A&M, but they changed their mind. This last-minute decision looks like it will cost him dearly.

Stoops has already been handicapped after losing long-time assistant Vince Marrow to the Wildcats’ archrival, Louisville. And here’s another hurdle in Stoops’ path to prove himself. Kentucky’s 2025 schedule is an absolute gauntlet. The ceiling for the head coach to keep his boat floating? Winning three or four games.

Already, the expectations are low. In a CBS Sports poll conducted last month, a panel voted Stoops as the No. 36 coach in college football. Kentucky is widely expected to slide down to the bottom and finish 14th in the 16-team SEC. Now, what might have made Lassan include Kentucky in the “not going to make it” list?

Maybe Stoops’ boys’ 2024 season blunders have been too costly. In their dispiriting 6-31 loss to South Carolina in last season’s Week 2 game, the Wildcats turned the ball over four times with two lost fumbles and two thrown picks. While their Vanderbilt face-off was believed to be a limited-possession game, Stoop’s squad committed an unpardonable blunder. They were flagged 12 times for a robust 105 yards. That played a role in Vandy’s 20-13 win over UK. Apart from all these issues on Stoops’ plate, the head coach is now concerned about the $44 million figure.

The big $44 million burden on Mark Stoops

The last time Kentucky signed a brand-new contract extension with Stoops was back in November 2022. That new contract has made him one of the highest-paid college football coaches. As per the reports, the buyout for the contract started at $4.5 million, going down to $4 million this year and hitting a low of $3.5 million in July. That’s the amount that other programs have to pay if they want to hire Stoops. Things get muddier the other way round.

All indications are that if Kentucky terminated him at the end of the season, they would owe him around $44 million. That covers the 80% remaining salary level; if they wanted it to be 60% of his remaining salary, they’d need to wait two more years. Now Stoops might be wrong to assume this big payout guarantees his job security at Kentucky. As Coach Shane shared, “I think he doesn’t care anymore. You know what I’m saying? He’s probably golfing four days a week. He’s just focused on his bourbon, you know, barrels, and growing that business.” Now, that’s not how things were supposed to be.

After all, Stoops has been guilt-ridden after their season-ending 41-14 loss to Louisville. Do you remember what the head coach shared? “I’m sorry I disappointed them and let them down in many ways.” It’s time for Stoops to buckle up and make his $44 million seat cooler and prove Lassan’s prediction wrong. In need of motivation?

There are quite a few that Mark Stoops can look up to. Iowa State’s Matt Campbell went 3-9 in his first season as ISU’s coach in 2016. He had hit a massive glow-up since 2023, as they bounced back to 7-6 and 11-3 in 2024. So, it isn’t that tough.