Matt Campbell knows the sting of a recruiting flip all too well. Quarterback Jett Thomalla once called Iowa State his “favorite” and even pledged to the Cyclones in April 2025, only to bounce two months later and commit to Alabama. The factor behind that flip may not haunt Campbell as much at Penn State, but the question remains. Can he avoid another recruiting gut punch?

“I think that is a challenge because you have more of a budget than you had to work with at Iowa State,” said analyst Allan Trieu on the Penn State Football on Blue White Illustrated podcast. “I know for a fact that Jett Thomalla, if they could have just gotten the money up a little bit more, he wanted to stay at Iowa State for a time period, and the NIL was a big part of that.”

Back then, Thomalla held an On3 NIL valuation of $213,000 and ranked No.29 among the high school quarterbacks. During last season, Kalen DeBoer’s Alabama flexed $15.9 million in NIL funds for the 2025 season, which was enough to flip Campbell’s former commit. And what about Iowa State?

Iowa State’s collective sat at roughly $7.5 million, which is less than half of Alabama’s war chest. The financial mismatch is glaring. However, when it comes to the NIL front, Campbell is believed to be on the stronger side with Penn State. 

“I think when you look at Penn State now, they’re going to have more to work with than they did at Iowa State,” said the analyst.

Penn State’s latest NCAA financial report revealed a sharp rise in athletics finances. Their operating revenue has climbed to $254.9 million, an increase of $34.1 million from FY 2023-24. So, that’s surely going to have an impact on the NIL. Penn State football alone allocated $13,338,959 in NIL last year. Given the revenue boost, Campbell is expected to lay his hands on a bigger NIL pool in Happy Valley than last year. Trieu offered a clear caution, though.

“But you’re also recruiting against schools that have bigger budgets,” he said. “So that to me is the challenge.”

At Iowa State, Campbell’s hands were tied by a restrictive ceiling. At Penn State, he’s actively weaponizing collectives like Happy Valley United. By structuring competitive NIL packages alongside initial verbal commitments, Campbell’s staff is building financial moats around top targets, ensuring early pledges don’t devolve into the open auctions that cost them Thomalla.

According to co-host Danny Kanell, Brian Kelly revealed in an interview that LSU has poured over $40 million in NIL money into the roster now being led by his successor, Lane Kiffin. When it comes to Steve Sarkisian’s Texas roster, the Longhorns are expected to field a roster worth $40 million.

The lingering anxiety in State College isn’t just about total dollars. It’s about the timing of the strike. Today, an early commitment often serves as a baseline bid for SEC bluebloods to counter. To avoid another Thomalla-style heartbreak, Campbell must navigate a treacherous 2027 recruiting trail where those same NIL pressures are already mounting. Even with Penn State’s upgraded war chest, surviving an eleventh-hour bidding war against a desperate mega-program remains a towering hurdle.

What the 2027 recruiting trail has in store for Matt Campbell

Right now, Campbell and the Nittany Lions got a sweet surprise. Even though the 2027 four-star quarterback recruit, Peter Bourque, committed to the Michigan Wolverines, he decommitted from Kyle Whittingham’s camp. According to On3’s projections, Campbell’s program have 2.7% chance to land the quarterback. However, in this recruitment race, the present Penn State head coach will butt heads against the former head coach, Virginia Tech’s James Franklin.  

After landing back-to-back top-10 recruiting classes, Texas Tech Aggies were widely viewed as one of the biggest spenders in the latest cycle. However, in a survey by On3, 12 of the 13 Power Four general managers claimed Campbell will also face off against perceived big spenders like Mike Elko’s program, recently named by Power Four GMs as a top NIL spender, in the battle for five-star cornerback John Meredith.

The Nittany Lions are also running the race for four-star quarterback Will Mencl. But at the moment, Dan Lanning’s Oregon stands at the top in the prediction meter to land the quarterback. 

Matt Campbell is still searching for his first 2027 pledge, according to reports. More trouble brews when programs like Oklahoma have already piled up 18 commitments. Could NIL hurdles throw a wrench into Campbell’s debut season in Happy Valley?