Last year, if anyone had told you that this time next year there would be above 10 head coaching openings, would you have believed? James Franklin, Brian Kelly, and Hugh Freeze, along with a couple of others took an exit, making the college football landscape look new altogether. Even with 11 weeks into the season, it looks like this firing carousel is not going to end anytime soon. Josh Pate stirred the pot a little by dropping Lincoln Riley’s name into the mix.

On November 5, Will Compton came up with an interesting session with co-host Pate. Sharing a clip of the analyst’s hot take, the host wrote on X: “Josh Pate just dropped a BOMB in this week’s episode about a head coaching job.” The conversations went like this as the Nebraska legend asked, “Do you have any feelings on these job openings right now?” Pate imitated as if he had stuck pins into his mouth. To make things spicy, he pulled out the imaginary pins and said, “All right, here we go. Let’s just keep an eye on Lincoln Riley.”

Talking about fans? Riley has already lost their trust after the Trojans lost 34-32 against Illinois. That was Riley and co.’s first loss after going on a four-win streak. With this, the head coach in his fourth season at USC fell to 4-11 against ranked opponents. Even before Pate, Paul Finebaum has brought out his crystal ball for Riley. 

Back in September, on The Matt Barrie Show, Finebaum suggested that Riley should be dismissed. “Another narrative that I’m not that eager to talk about anymore is Lincoln Riley. What a moment. Come all the way back, tie the game and then he let it go at the final moment against a team that was given up for dead…. Southern Cal is a typical 8-4, Lincoln Riley team who USC can’t get rid of because the buyout is too oppressive,” came the ESPN analyst’s blunt jab.

Riley arrived from Oklahoma in 2021 with sky-high expectations. He had wrapped up five stellar seasons in Norman. It was highlighted by four Big 12 titles and three College Football Playoff berths. So, the Trojans might have seen Riley as the man who would restore the golden era they experienced in the early 2000s under Pete Caroll. 

Riley started strong, ending his debut season with an 11-3 record with a trip to the Pac-12 Championship Game. However, since then, it has been a downhill ride. 8-5 in 2023, 7-6 in 2024. But what might lead the Trojans to sail for some more time with Riley?

Lincoln Riley’s recruiting wins do not hand him a green pass

Back in 2022, Riley signed a 10-year, $110 million contract with USC. He was paid just over $11.5 million in total reportable compensation the next season. Looks like the compensation paid off. When it comes to the recruiting track, Riley has been a PRO. As per On3’s 2026 Industry Ranking football Team Recruiting Rankings, the Trojans stand at No.1 with 35 recruits locked in. 

As Ethan Inman wrote, “It’s also no secret that Riley has dramatically rehabilitated his image in 2025…He has assembled the No. 1 2026 recruiting class in the nation.” Powered by two top-20 five-stars, Mater Dei’s Mark Bowman and IMG Academy’s Keenyi Pepe, Riley has done an amazing job in blending California’s homegrown dominance with a national pull. But looks like he needs to put more focus on fine-tuning his program.

His defense fell flat against Illinois. The Trojans could not stop anything all night. They gave up over 500 yards of total offense, forcing just one punt on Illinois’ 10 drives. Last season, against Michigan, the Trojans failed to match Michigan’s physicality on either side of the football. This made Riley a loyalist, Colin Cowherd to lose faith in the head coach.

“Lincoln Riley as a play designer and caller is A+. How many years do I have to watch USC get pushed around on every road game before I don’t have this opinion? He’s not a culture builder; he is a great, great intellect, but I’m watching them get pushed around by Illinois, and last year Maryland, and last year Michigan, and this year Notre Dame. It’s four years in. This is what they are as a program,” said the analyst. 

While Lincoln Riley is said to smooth out the sharp edges, here come some injury woes to make his seat hotter. Their next big face-off is against Northwestern, and he has confirmed that he will be without his DT Jamaal Jarrett. He added his name as the eighth player ruled out. Whether USC makes a move on Riley, and how soon, is now the question hanging over Los Angeles.