Florida State’s football program is in trouble. After going 13-0 and winning the ACC in 2023, the Seminoles are now struggling on the field and losing top recruits. The program’s sole ranked 2027 commit just decommitted after an official visit to Wisconsin. And now, time is running out for head coach Mike Norvell.

On May 31, Noles insider TJ Pittinger hopped onto X and shared the news that four-star safety Mekhi Williams abruptly backed out of his verbal commitment right after taking an official visit to Wisconsin.

Williams had been committed to FSU for over 14 months and was the centerpiece as the only highly rated, “blue-chip” prospect left in their upcoming class. Williams’ flip to Wisconsin exposed FSU’s recruiting crisis, and that’s the fact that top recruits no longer see Tallahassee as a destination.

Because of this loss, FSU’s recruiting class has dropped all the way to No. 47 nationally for the 2027 class, according to 247Sports. To make things even worse, college football insiders like Pete Nakos of On3 recently pointed out that programs like Boston College and Pitt are currently spending more and recruiting better than Florida State.

No. 47 ranking means FSU cannot reload fast enough to compete in 2026. Without these elite high school players, the team won’t have the foundation they need to win any conference championships in the future. The popular consensus for this fall is directly tied to the fact that the team has been painful to watch on the actual football field.

Just two years ago, Florida State went undefeated and won the ACC. Since star quarterback Jordan Travis left, however, the Seminoles have fallen apart, posting a combined 7-17 record over the last two seasons.

FSU’s 7-17 record gives rival coaches an easy pitch: this program is heading backward. Right now, rival coaches can easily point to FSU’s recent struggles. Another reason would be that Norvell’s strategy of relying heavily on the transfer portal is starting to hurt the program. Bringing in experienced players worked great during the 2023 season, but it has also damaged the team’s long-term development.

Young players often get pushed aside when transfers arrive, which is one reason why homegrown players like quarterback Brock Glenn decided to leave through the transfer portal.

The big question is simple: why hasn’t Norvell been fired after two disappointing seasons?

How is Mike Norvell still employed?

The simple answer is an eye-watering amount of money: If Florida State fired Norvell today, the school would have to pay more than $50 million in buyout costs. FSU gave him a huge contract extension when his value was at its highest to keep him from taking the Alabama job. Looking back, that decision has not aged well.

The athletic department is already dealing with around $400 million in debt, making it nearly impossible to fire him unless wealthy boosters are willing to pay the bill. Moving forward into the fall, Norvell is completely out of second chances and must deliver the performance of his lifetime.

Insiders at ESPN say that Norvell needs to pull off at least eight wins in 2026 just to save his job and keep the boosters from revolting. It may seem quite achievable on paper. If you actually look into it, they are not even remotely close to touching that .500 mark next season. The Seminoles have two weaknesses: their offensive line and their road-game struggles.

FSU replaced all five starting offensive line spots with incoming transfer portal players like Nate Pabst and Xavier Chaplin.

The road-game problem is even worse: they have lost their last nine true road games and their last 11 games away from home altogether. This season wouldn’t be any different. Mike is planning to start the 2026 campaign with a road game against Alabama. Mind you, the Crimson Tide is waiting to settle the score. At this point, they are most definitely going to succeed in doing it.