Garrett Nussmeier doesn’t blink. His game is as aggressive as it gets—deep shots, tight windows, throws that would make most coordinators sweat. And yet, that’s what makes him LSU’s best bet. But with that flair comes occasional recklessness, and it’s what former Tiger QB Matt Flynn zeroed in on. Recalling Nussmeier’s freshman campaign, Flynn didn’t pull punches: “He’s got a good arm, but he looks different from the way he is pulling the trigger into tight zones.” For all his arm talent—and there’s plenty—Nussmeier walks a fine line between gunslinger and game wrecker. But the ceiling is undeniable.

And that’s exactly why ESPN’s latest 2025 FPI projection triggered such sharp pushback in Baton Rouge. The algorithm spit out an 8-4 finish for the LSU Tigers—7.9 wins, to be exact—and just a 30% chance to reach the CFPs. To locals, it read like a slap in the face. And Matt Moscona on After Further Review didn’t mince words: “That to me is – stunning. I’m gonna continue to say it, and I think that is where like human knowledge of the team, the roster is going to give you, me, us who follow this program an advantage over the rest of the country who doesn’t pay deep attention to LSU and the computers who don’t know what to do with a team that has so many transfers.”

He wasn’t done. “LSU did this year what Ohio State and Ole Miss did a year ago. They went into the portal and bought the best roster in the country. It’s what LSU did. They added 18 players via the portal. They got better at every level of their defense. They fortified the offensive line with two veteran starters. You got the leading returning passer in college football. You added dynamic weapons on the outside. You returned Caden Durham. Like you add a top-five high school signing class to the mix. You are going to be one of the three or four best rosters in all of college football this year.”

The dissonance is glaring. On one hand, the computers dismiss LSU as a second-tier SEC squad. On the other hand, the human eye sees a loaded roster with proven weapons, elite youth, and a QB who, despite his flaws, possesses the kind of live arm you build systems around. In 2024, Nussmeier completed 64.2% of his passes—a number that will only rise as he gets more comfortable with pre-snap reads and tempo rhythm throws. With two veteran O-linemen added to the trenches (4 stars – Solomon Thomas and Tyler Miller) and one of the deepest WR rooms in the country, LSU’s vertical attack has all the tools to burn secondaries.

And the optimism isn’t just local. CFB critic Paul Finebaum, who is never shy with bold calls, placed LSU in his preseason top four alongside Texas, Georgia, and Alabama. He believes LSU’s five-year Playoff drought is primed to end. Even acknowledged the brutal gauntlet that is the SEC. That’s what makes LSU’s construction this offseason so crucial. They return 62% of their total production, good for 38th nationally, while upgrading in all the right places: edge rush, LB depth, and secondary athleticism. It’s not just about experience—it’s about what kind of experience.

So, sure, ESPN’s formula doesn’t love LSU. But formulas don’t see locker room dynamics or hear the tone in a coach’s voice when he talks about his quarterback. They don’t factor in the culture reset LSU’s transfer-heavy retool brought or the chip that sits on Nussmeier’s shoulder every time he steps under center. “It would be a stunning, stunning disaster if LSU wins seven or eight games this year,” Moscona said. “I just can’t even wrap my brain around where this team would lose five games in the regular season.”

LSU’s million-dollar pressure cooker: boom or bye-bye?

LSU HC Brian Kelly might be sitting in the hottest seat in Baton Rouge — and not just because it’s Louisiana in the summer. During a recent segment on The Paul Finebaum Show, Finebaum didn’t mince words about the pressure surrounding the LSU head coach. “Even though I think he’s going to have one of the best seasons in recent years, Brian Kelly cannot afford a bad season either,” Finebaum said. Translation: Kelly might have a talented roster, but the leash is very short.

And if LSU does decide to pull the plug? Well, it won’t come cheap. Kelly’s buyout in 2025 is a jaw-dropping $51.7 million — the kind of number that’ll make any school hesitate. It does go down each year, though: $42.5 million in 2026, $33.1 million in 2027, $23.4 million in 2028, and $13.5 million in 2029. Still, that’s a whole lot of gumbo money.

The expectations are sky-high, and the patience? Not so much. Kelly has the roster, the talent, and the spotlight. Now it’s just about turning all that into wins.