Self-belief has always been Diego Pavia’s superpower. But with the 91st Heisman night looming, a chorus of critics is trying to dim the Vanderbilt Commodores’ quarterback’s moment. The criticism kicked off on the December 11 episode of the Bear Bets podcast, when analyst Geoff Schwartz declared that he thinks three quarterbacks are better than Diego Pavia.

“I can easily name four,” Sammy Panayotovich piled on, pushing Pavia even further down the ladder. But the snowball really picked up speed when Chris Fallica chimed in with a take that caught even his co-hosts off guard.

“I got seven,” dropped the FOX Sports’ analyst. 

So, who made it onto Fallica’s list above Pavia? Fernando Mendoza, Julian Sayin, CJ Carr, Jayden Maiava, Haynes King, Gunner Stockton, Dante Moore- as per the analyst’s order. However, across the sportsbooks, unlike Fallica’s take, Pavia sits just behind Mendoza, the 6’5”, 225-pound California Golden Bears’ transfer who just dragged Indiana Hoosiers to their first Big Ten crown since 1967. 

As per DraftKings’ odds, Mendoza sits at -1800 odds, Pavia at +900, followed by Jeremiyah Love at +25000 and Sayin at +50000. Going by BetMGM’s odds, Mendoza leads the race at -1200 odds. Pavia is right behind him at +700, Love at +15000, and Sayin at +50000. This lands us with a Mendoza vs Pavia comparison. Who is going to be lucky to lift the much-awaited bronze trophy?

Mendoza’s résumé is fully loaded- 2,980 yards, 33 touchdowns, just six picks, plus six scores on the ground. With Indiana sitting at a spotless 13-0, he’s got the kind of backbone Heisman voters love. Cut to Pavia, he is still in the race, but the runway is tight. At +900, he’s the nearest threat, though still a distant one. His numbers? 3,192 yards, 27 touchdowns, eight interceptions, and a scorching 71% completion rate.

Pavia owns the rushing lane with 826 yards and nine trips to the end zone, dwarfing Mendoza’s 240 and six. Yet Mendoza still holds the scoreboard advantage. The newest straw poll reflected the razor-thin margin. 

The Vanderbilt quarterback’s secret sauce is his legs. Pavia has outpaced Mendoza by almost 600 rushing yards, while Sayin didn’t even break into the positive. Now that Fallica has pushed him far below to No.8 in his Heisman rankings, it’s time for Pavia to revisit his old interview.

“Well, the Heisman Trophy winner goes to the best player in college football,” said the Commodores quarterback back in November. “I believe that to be myself.”

Right now, all of Commodore Nation has its hopes riding on Pavia’s shoulders.

Diego Pavia’s numbers that made history

On Monday, December 8, Pavia punched his ticket to New York, becoming the first Commodore to earn a Heisman finalist nod. He has gone full record-breaker mode, setting new school highs in passing yards, passing touchdowns, and total offense.

Along with this, Pavia became the only Commodore ever to stack multiple 3,000-yard seasons. Pavia made Vandy history as the first player to top 300 passing yards and 100 rushing yards in a single game, torching Auburn with 377 through the air and 112 on the ground. 

He doubled down in the regular-season finale, becoming the SEC’s first player since Jayden Daniels in 2023 to rack up 250+ passing yards and 150+ rushing yards in a game, doing it in a win at Tennessee Volunteers.

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Commodore Nation is swimming in mixed emotions as they brace for Pavia’s curtain-call game at the ReliaQuest Bowl. Initially, there loomed doubts about their quarterback playing in the bowl game. But Lea landed a stamp of approval.

“I’ve never known Diego to shy away from a challenge. We’re going to enjoy the chance to compete with him one more time,” the Commodores head coach said.

However, they will have to accept the bitter reality that Pavia will not be there for the next season. To lift up their spirits, Vanderbilt Athletic Director dropped a fiery message.

“Most important message, we’ll be back,” said Candice Storey Lee. 

If Diego Pavia ends up hoisting that Heisman, it’ll be the perfect parting gift for Vandy. At the same time, the victory will be the coldest reality check for Chris Fallica, who faded him too soon.