Joe Burrow missed the majority of the 2025 season after suffering a turf toe injury that forced him to miss nine games. Ultimately, the Cincinnati Bengals finished the season 6-11 and failed to make the postseason for the third consecutive year. Fast forward to this season, and Burrow is healthy and set to begin his seventh season.

That prompted Mitchell Eisenstein to convince Richard Sherman that with Burrow healthy and potentially able to play all 17 games, the Bengals could win the division. Sherman, however, wasn’t convinced because he doesn’t appreciate a team with a bad defense.

“If Joe Burrow played safety or corner for the Cincinnati Bengals, I’d be right there with you,” said Sherman, responding to Eisenstein. “But I’ve been at those games where Joe Burrow puts up 40 points, and the other team puts up 42. I’ve been at the games where Joe Burrow puts up 35 points, and the other team puts up 38. It’s not Joe Burrow’s fault that it doesn’t always work out, Mitchell.

“They will be amongst the league leaders in points when Joe Burrow is under center. They could not stop a nosebleed at times last season. And so if that continues to be the case until they show me otherwise, I don’t got it. You could have Joe Burrow or Joe Montana back there; it would not matter if you can’t stop anybody, and I don’t appreciate teams that don’t play defense.”

If the Bengals have shown us anything, it’s that Joe Burrow being healthy and playing all 17 games doesn’t guarantee a playoff spot, let alone winning the division. During the 2024 season, Burrow played the full season and led the league with 4,918 passing yards, while throwing 43 touchdowns against nine interceptions.

At the same time, the Bengals’ offense scored 27.8 points per game, ranking sixth in the league. Yet, Cincinnati went 9-8 and missed the playoffs because the defense was disappointing. The Bengals allowed 25.5 points per game, ranking 25th in the league, and surrendered 434 points.

For broader context, in the Week 5 matchup against the Baltimore Ravens in 2024, Burrow recorded a career-high five touchdowns on 30-of-39 passing. Cincinnati led Baltimore 38-28 with 8:54 remaining. But the Ravens scored 13 unanswered points and won 41-38 in overtime. By the time the season entered its later phase, the Bengals had already established an astonishing pattern.

Cincinnati had lost six games while allowing 25+ points, four while allowing 33+ points, three while allowing 34+ points, and two while allowing 38+ points. Meanwhile, they lost four games despite scoring at least 30 points.

“We’re not a championship-level team right now,” Burrow said at that time.

Last season as well, Cincinnati allowed 492 points, or 28.9 per game, 30th in the NFL. The Bengals finished 6–11 despite scoring 414 points themselves. According to the advanced numbers, the Bengals finished 29th in passing yards allowed per play, 31st in rushing yards allowed per play, 28th in EPA allowed per opponent dropback, and 30th in EPA allowed per rush.

Heading into the 2026 season, the Bengals have multiple changes on the defensive side of the ball, including Dexter Lawrence’s trade. But it’s too early to say whether the Bengals will win the division with Joe Burrow healthy. At least, that’s what Sherman believes.