The Kansas City Chiefs are facing a disappointing 2025 NFL season, entering Week 15 with a concerning 6-7 record that has left their playoff hopes hanging by a thread. This struggling performance is a stark and unfamiliar situation for Andy Reid’s team, which has historically dominated the AFC. Now there’s another development to the story. According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, Kansas City could be eliminated if four things align on Sunday.

“Here is the way the Chiefs can be eliminated from postseason contention today:” Schefter wrote on X. “Chiefs lose to the Chargers, Buffalo beats or ties the Patriots, Jaguars beat or tie the Jets, Texans beat the Cardinals. If all four of those scenarios play out, the Chiefs are out.” 

Following a recent loss to the Houston Texans, the Chiefs have already been mathematically eliminated from winning the AFC West division title for the first time in nine years. The team’s fate now effectively rests on their performance against the Los Angeles Chargers. While other wins will have to be achieved as well for their elimination, the one fixture that stands out is their own. Should Kansas beat the Chargers, their playoff hopes rise to around 19%, but defeating the Chargers isn’t easy this season. In fact, the Chiefs already lost to them in their earlier game this year. 

Despite this enormous uphill challenge, quarterback Patrick Mahomes has expressed confidence in his team, stating that while their chances are “getting lower and lower,” he knows the players will continue to give everything they have. Unlike other seasons, his name has been strangely absent from the MVP gossip this year.

Patrick Mahomes expected to be out of the MVP race amid team struggles

The Kansas City Chiefs seem to be in trouble after their recent loss to the Texans. The defeat caused the team’s chances of making the playoffs to drop severely. Looking ahead, the next game against the Chargers is critical: a win would only increase their playoff odds, but a loss would see them plummet to less than a one percent chance.

In addition to the team’s struggles, there is also bad news for star quarterback Patrick Mahomes regarding the coveted MVP award. Despite his talent, the Chiefs’ difficult season has effectively ended his MVP hopes. When the NFL announces the finalists for the 2025-26 season award in late January, Mahomes is not expected to be on the list. 

As the race stands, the favorite to win the MVP award is Matthew Stafford of the Los Angeles Rams, according to research from Fox Sports as of Saturday, December 13. 

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“Stafford came back down to earth in Week 13 but caught fire again in Week 14, and his MVP odds moved to -180 from +125,” Fox Sports notes. “In the Rams’ 45-17 trampling of the Cardinals, Stafford threw for 281 yards and three touchdowns. He leads the league in passing touchdowns (35) and is fourth in passing yards (3,354).”

This situation also involves the notion that the MVP usually goes to a player whose team is having a successful year, and several other quarterbacks are having outstanding seasons that make them clear nominees.

While it’s technically still possible for the Chiefs to make the playoffs and for Patrick Mahomes to recover his MVP chances, it would take some luck and nearly perfect play from here on out. In addition to winning their next game against the Chargers, all their upcoming games look like make-or-break moments for the Chiefs’ entire 2025-26 season.