Heading into the Kansas City Chiefs‘ season opener against the Denver Broncos, head coach Andy Reid cleared the biggest doubt mounting over the team: Patrick Mahomes’ availability. The quarterback is set to start following his knee injury during the 2025 season.
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“There’s a pretty good chance Patrick will go ahead and start, unless something were to come up here in the next couple days,” Reid said on Tuesday. “Most likely, he’ll be the guy out there. Other than having a brace on his leg, everything looks normal. He’s running around the same way he’s always done. I think he’ll be fine there.”
Certainly, Coach Reid is confident in Mahomes’ recovery, and there’s no denying that the QB will be expected to kick off the season on a positive note. However, Mike Tomlin raised a bigger concern. The former head coach is optimistic about Mahomes’ recovery. What he fears is whether we will see the same Mahomes we are used to, considering he’s returning from an injury and the Chiefs are coming off a 6-11 record.
“There’s two things they’ve got to respond to,” said Tomlin on the Football Night in America. “First of all, as a collective, they got to respond to the negativity of the season, and that story will be written. But Mahomes has got to bounce back from injury. And that graphic that you showed tells everything. It’s been a signature of him and them since he’s been in the league.
“His ability to extend plays and make plays without negativity, and create positive things is a component of him and them. So, it’s going to be interesting to see. He may be healthy enough to play, but is he Mahomes? Is he going to extend plays in the ways that he has in the past? And the bigger question is: when he does, is he going to be able to avoid the negativity and produce some of the production that he’s been able to do since 2018?”
Tomlin’s concern is rooted in one of the defining aspects of Mahomes’ game: his ability to create outside structure. Since the 2018 season, Mahomes leads the league in completions (424), passing yards (5,877), and touchdown passes (61) when it comes to throws outside the pocket.
Before 2025, Mahomes averaged 2.5 scrambles per regular-season game and 3.3 in the playoffs. That number climbed to 3.8 last season, when the Chiefs increasingly relied on him to create yards when the offense stalled.
Across his NFL career, Mahomes has accumulated 2,665 rushing yards and 180 rushing first downs during his NFL career. In 2025 alone, he produced 422 rushing yards, 27 rushing first downs, and five rushing touchdowns in 14 games. That means roughly 42% of his career rushing attempts have resulted in first downs (180 first downs on 496 attempts).
At the same time, however, Patrick Mahomes will also need to look at the 2025 season differently. For the first time in years, the quarterback missed the playoffs last year. On top of that, he went down with an ACL and LCL tear in his left knee in December 2025.
This is exactly why the Chiefs will need a slightly different version of Mahomes early in 2026. For broader context, Mahomes’ 2025 offense relied heavily on him creating outside structure, while Kansas City also struggled to protect him consistently.
Mahomes had been hit 153 times in 2025 when sacks and quarterback knockdowns were combined, second-most in the NFL at that point. At the same time, he finished with 34 sacks, and the team is entering Week 1 with uncertainty at left tackle because Josh Simmons is dealing with a back injury.
This is why Mike Tomlin’s concern is particularly relevant given how much Kansas City has relied on Mahomes’ legs in recent seasons. With Mahomes healthy enough to start against the Broncos, it remains to be seen how the Chiefs will make a strong comeback.