The Miami Dolphins wrapped up their Friday practice in comfort—starting indoors before stepping out to a sunny 82-degree afternoon, complete with light clouds and cooling breezes. But that easy South Florida air won’t follow them to Cleveland.

When they take the field against the Browns on Sunday, the weather will be anything but friendly. According to AccuWeather, winds are expected to blow south-southwest at 27 mph, with gusts reaching an eye-popping 52 mph—strong enough to qualify as tropical-storm levels. And that’s only the start of it.

NFLWeather reports that for Week 7’s Dolphins at Browns clash, fans can expect showers and thunderstorms, with skies staying mostly cloudy and temperatures dipping to around 49°F. Winds from the west will range from 18 to 25 mph, gusting as high as 39 mph, with a 100% chance of rain and up to three-quarters of an inch of rainfall possible.

If that sounds miserable, well—it might be. There’s also a 96% chance of precipitation and a 29% chance of thunderstorms, though kickoff temperatures at Huntington Bank Field should hover in the 60s.

Despite the rough forecast, Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel insists he’s not letting weather become a distraction—at least not yet.

McDaniel said Friday, “For me, I prepare and kind of weave it into the conversation closer to the game. The night before the game is when the weather predictions are a little bit more accurate. We all know weather predictions are an inexact science, so I think you make the opponent the team you’re playing, not the weather.”

Still, this one could get messy. Between two 1-5 teams, this might actually become one of the weekend’s most unpredictable—and entertaining—games, simply because of the weather. The Dolphins are walking into a nightmare: the NFL’s third-ranked defense, paired with wind and rain. That’s a brutal combination for a struggling Miami offense.

The Browns’ defense, on the other hand, is already a must-start. If these conditions hold, they could feast on Miami’s attempts to move the ball.

With a rookie quarterback under center, Cleveland may opt to lean on rookie running back Quinshon Judkins. Given the conditions, he’s worth a fantasy start—just beware of potential fumbles on the slippery field.

Darren Waller still remembers how harsh Cleveland can be. His last trip there came in November 2020, back when stadiums were empty during the COVID-19 pandemic.

As for Miami, it’s a haunting reminder of last December, when Tyler “Snoop” Huntley led them to victory in Cleveland—their last road win to date. They’ve opened 0-3 away from Hard Rock Stadium this season.

On the other hand, for the Cleveland Browns, that forecast might just be a blessing.

Why the weather favors the Browns over the Dolphins?

On the Orange and Brown Talk podcast, Browns film analyst Lance Reisland didn’t mince words when asked who benefits most. “Oh, this isn’t even close,” Reisland said. “After watching the Dolphins over the last four to six games, this is in favor of the Browns.”

That critique isn’t baseless. Miami’s track record in bad weather has long been suspect, especially under McDaniel’s timing-based system. In perfect dome or sunny conditions, the Dolphins are electric. But when the weather turns ugly, their rhythm falls apart.

Reisland even went further: “People talk about Kevin Stefanski. Mike McDaniel, even if it rains, will not change who he is and what he does. The weather will kill them as it has in the playoffs because he does not change.”

The weather also levels the playing field for the quarterbacks. Both Tua Tagovailoa and Dillon Gabriel hail from Hawaii, meaning they’re far more familiar with sunshine than swirling lakefront winds. Gabriel may have a slight edge after college stints at Oklahoma and Oregon, where weather was occasionally a factor.

That spells trouble for Miami’s aerial attack. Strong winds could ground Tagovailoa’s deep-ball precision, forcing Miami to rely on De’Von Achane and short-yardage runs. Meanwhile, the Browns’ defense could feast on disrupted timing routes.

Joel Bitonio, Cleveland’s veteran guard, knows all too well how quickly conditions can shift by the lake. If the Browns embrace the storm instead of fighting it, they could turn the elements into their ultimate weapon. By simplifying the offense and leaning on the run game, the weather might just become Cleveland’s 12th man on Sunday.