Quinn Ewers is set to take over quarterback duties in Week 16, and it feels like we’re watching the twilight of the Tua Tagovailoa era in Miami. The dawn, though, doesn’t exquisitely promise better days for the Miami Dolphins next season. One thing seems clear: after the final three games of the regular season, Miami is expected to retain Mike McDaniel through 2026, sure.

Tua’s future, however, is far murkier. According to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport, the quarterback situation is very much up in the air.

“It is expectation that Tua has played his final down, with the Miami Dolphins going to be with the third quarterback today,” Rapoport said.

On paper, this looks like a simple pivot in the QB room—maybe even a necessary one. Zoom out, though, and the decision becomes anything but simple. Stephen M. Ross and the Dolphins could be staring at a $99 million problem if they decide to move on from their franchise quarterback.

“Nothing about this contract says it’s time to get out,” reported Michael Ginnitti of Spotrac, a few days back. “Assuming they can’t find a trade partner, Miami could be primed to designate Tua a Post 6/1 release (before another $3M vests on March 13th). There’s $99,200,000 of dead cap currently attached to the deal, including $54M of fully guaranteed salary.”

Translation: Ahead of the 2024 season, Miami handed Tua a four-year, $212.4 million extension. What they didn’t expect, though, was for him to throw 15 interceptions just one year later…or to be benched for the final three weeks of another losing season. Yet, here we are.

Tua is under contract through 2028 and is guaranteed $54 million in new money. If the Dolphins cut him before June 1, 2026, they’ll absorb the entire $99.2 million dead-cap hit at once. Waiting until after June 1 would at least allow them to spread that hit over two seasons. Even then, it’s hardly painless. Miami would carry $67.4 million in dead cap in 2026 alone and another $31.8 million in 2027.

So no matter how you slice it, moving on from Tua would cost nearly $100 million. Which raises the obvious question: what options do the Dolphins really have?

A trade is technically possible. But between Tua’s massive contract running through 2028 and his uneven play this season, finding a willing buyer feels unlikely. That leaves cutting him as the most realistic path, which will be a brutally expensive one but reportedly a cost Ross is willing to absorb. All while continuing to place his faith in his head coach.

Mike McDaniel is expected to return in 2026

At 6–8 with just three games left, the Dolphins don’t have much left to play for this season. Naturally, the focus is already shifting toward the 2026 offseason, where Miami faces the need for significant changes, both on the roster and potentially in the front office. While Rapoport believes Tua Tagovailoa may have played his final snaps for the Dolphins, the same can’t be said for the head coach.

“Our understanding is McDaniel barring some sort of surprise is expected back next season,” Rapoport added. “This is someone who does have the support of owner Stephen Ross. Remember, he extended him. The two are close. The Dolphins organization does want McDaniel to succeed and believes that he could do it.”

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That’s notable, especially considering McDaniel entered the season sitting squarely on the hot seat. A four-game winning streak cooled things off for a bit, but that relief didn’t last long. Last week’s loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers officially knocked Miami out of the playoff race, bringing McDaniel right back into the conversation. Still, unless something unexpected happens behind the scenes, his job appears safe.

The reason is simple: ownership has the HC’s back. Stephen Ross recently extended McDaniel, and the organization believes in his vision, and there’s no real appetite for hitting the reset button on the head coach. Missing the playoffs again will sting, but McDaniel is still expected to be on the sideline in 2026.

The quarterback situation, though, is another story. Ewers is expected to line up under center down the stretch. And depending on how things unfold, he could find himself competing for the QB1 role next season.