Four weeks in, and the 2025 NFL season already has its first big storyline. The MVP race is taking shape faster than anyone expected. From the jump, it felt like this year was going to be another back-and-forth between the Bills‘ QB, Josh Allen, and the Ravens‘ QB, Lamar Jackson.

But then Week 4 happened. Lamar tweaked his hamstring against the Chiefs, and suddenly the race doesn’t look as tight. Right now, the sportsbooks have Allen sitting at +110 to repeat as MVP, with the Bills cruising at 4–0 and looking like the AFC’s top team. That’s a strong start, but then again, it’s only been a month. Crowning Allen this early feels a little premature. Why?

Because out west, a 37-year-old Matthew Stafford is quietly making his own case. The Los Angeles Rams‘ quarterback is playing like he’s got something to prove. The numbers are lining up in his favor, the Rams are stacking wins, and he’s already knocking down franchise and even NFL records. Add a loaded group of weapons on offense and a defense that’s giving him every chance to succeed.

Of course, there were concerns in the offseason about his back holding up, but right now, Stafford looks locked in and heading toward one of the most productive seasons of his entire career. If Allen is the safe early pick, Stafford feels like the sneaky bet that could flip this MVP race on its head. Here’s why:

Matthew Stafford is one of the most influential players in the NFL

Matthew Stafford is the one who impacts who will lift the Lombardi in February. After all, the Rams won the Super Bowl the first year he took the helm. Earlier this offseason, Stafford reportedly thought about leaving the Rams. Had he actually walked away, LA would’ve been forced to roll with another veteran QB or a draft-day prospect. And it won’t be wrong to say that the Rams would have looked like a pretty bad team.

But the 37-year-old returned. The Rams are now 3-1 heading into Week 5. Offense is lighting up, and so is the defense, and that’s exactly why Sports Illustrated’s Matt Verderame named Stafford one of the most influential players in the league before the season kicked off. “Can Stafford and his 37-year-old back hold up? It’s a looming question after he missed much of the summer with a disk issue,” he stated.

“If he’s healthy, the Rams are going to be a top-tier contender with talent galore on both sides of the ball. As for Stafford, he threw for 3,762 yards and 20 touchdowns in 2024 across 16 games. Now with Davante Adams, Stafford could throw for 30 touchdowns for the second time since the 2015 season.” However, it’s not just Stafford’s return that makes him an MVP-calibre QB this season and the Rams a Super Bowl contender. His offensive weapons are in the mix as well.

A look at the Rams’ QBs’ offensive weapons

The Rams’ red zone struggles in the 2024 season were palpable. While we’re in the earlier stages of the season, the team has shown notable improvement in its red zone performance, thanks to Stafford’s offensive weapons. Stafford already had one of the best receivers in the league: Puka Nacua. But the addition of a tall, big target, Davante Adams, made their passing game much better than the rest of the teams.

On top of that, the rushing attack has been efficient as well, with Kyren Williams leading the ground game. Take the first four weeks of the season, for instance (performance metrics of Adams, Nacua, and Williams):

• Week 1: Nacua led the Rams’ passing attack against the Houston Texans with 10 catches for 130 yards, while Adams chipped in 4 receptions for 51 yards. Williams contributed on the ground with 66 rushing yards on 18 carries.
• Week 2: Against the Tennessee Titans, the passing game stayed hot. Adams led with 6 catches for 106 yards, and Nacua added 8 receptions for 91 yards. Williams again powered the run game, gaining 66 yards on 17 carries and helping the Rams total 149 rushing yards.

• Week 3: Despite a loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, the Rams piled up yards. Nacua posted his second 100+ yard game with 11 catches for 112 yards, Adams added 56 yards on 3 receptions, and Williams narrowly missed 100 yards with 94 rushing yards.
• Week 4: The Rams bounced back versus the Indianapolis Colts, racking up 462 total yards (360 passing, 102 rushing). Nacua dominated with 13 receptions for 170 yards and a touchdown, Adams added 4 catches for 56 yards, and Williams delivered another strong outing with 77 yards on 13 carries.

The signs are clear: Stafford is getting tremendous help through the air from the 32-year-old veteran wideout Adams and the third-year receiver, Nacua. And when it comes to the rushing attack, Williams is leading the ground game from the front. No doubt the 37-year-old is knocking down not just the franchise, but the league’s records in passing touchdowns.

Matthew Stafford is already one of the best QBs for the Rams

After a tough loss against the Eagles in Week 3, the Rams faced the undefeated Colts and handed them a 27-20 loss on Sunday afternoon. Matthew Stafford walked out of the SoFi Stadium with 1,114 yards and eight touchdowns, with a completion rate of 67.6% through the first four games. But if you zoom in, you’ll find that Stafford has already surpassed the Hall of Fame quarterbacks in the Rams’ history.

Stafford walked into SoFi Stadium with 382 career touchdowns, including 100 with the Rams. The 37-year-old threw three TDs against the Colts, surpassing Hall of Famer Kurt Warner on the franchise’s passing touchdown list. His 103 touchdowns with LA now rank him sixth in team history. Take a look at the five men ahead of him:

• Jared Goff (107)
• Norm Van Brocklin (118)
• Marc Bulger (122)
• Jim Everett (142)
• Roman Gabriel (154)

That said, Stafford is now expected to surpass Goff and Van Brocklin by the end of this season. And if he plays one more season, then expect him to become the leading touchdown scorer for the Rams’ franchise. But the quarterback isn’t just stopping here. He’s also moving the NFL’s record books in passing touchdowns.

Stafford has gone ahead of Matt Ryan (381) in Week 3 to claim the ninth spot in the most passing touchdowns. If his back and legs allow him and he scores 34 more this season, he’ll move ahead of Ben Roethlisberger for eighth. It’s going to be tough, sure. But then again, we’re talking about Stafford in the MVP race at the time he’ll turn 38. He can pass Big Ben. And yes, he can win the MVP award this year. We’ll see how things shake up.