The very league that makes FOX a broadcast titan could be the one to bring it to its knees, and Wall Street is sounding the alarm. On February 25, 2026, FOX Corporation saw its stock price slide by about 3.3% after a major warning from Bank of America. The bank didn’t just lower its outlook; it “double downgraded” the stock from Buy to Underperform. This move was triggered by fears that FOX is becoming too dependent on the NFL, especially as the costs to keep those games on the air are expected to skyrocket.

The main issue is that FOX’s current deal to broadcast games is part of a massive $110 billion agreement that lasts through 2033. However, experts believe that when it comes time to renew or adjust these rights, the price could jump by as much as 1.5 times the current rate. Because FOX focused heavily on live sports and news after selling its entertainment assets to Disney years ago, it has less of a “safety net” than other media giants if sports costs spiral out of control.

Analysts estimate that these rising fees could slash Fox’s core profits by 22% by 2027. This is because the money FOX makes from commercials and cable companies usually doesn’t grow as fast as the massive checks they have to write to the NFL. This gap between what they pay and what they earn is making investors very nervous.

As of late February, FOX stock is down nearly 27% for the year, hitting some of its lowest levels in months. While the NFL remains the most popular thing on TV, the battle to keep those rights, especially with streaming services now bidding for games, puts FOX in a difficult spot. 

The four major media companies (Disney, Comcast, Fox, and Paramount) currently pay a combined $9 billion every year just to show NFL games on their channels. However, that price tag is about to get much higher. 

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Financial experts are worried because these companies are now facing several “no-win” situations. They might be forced to pay billions more in fees while actually getting fewer games to broadcast, or they might pay the high price just to keep the NFL but lose so much money that it hurts their entire business. Investors are now worried that the very games that keep the network alive might become too expensive for the company to afford. 

Why the NFL’s next TV deal spells trouble for FOX

The $9 billion figure is the estimated “price of admission” for the next era of NFL media rights, and it is currently causing a massive headache for major TV networks. In 2026, experts from Bank of America sounded the alarm, specifically downgrading Fox because the company relies so heavily on football to make money. 

Analysts believe the NFL could explore early renegotiation using opt-out provisions in its current contract to start fresh negotiations this year, much sooner than the original 2029 end date.

For a company like FOX, this creates a “financial squeeze.” To keep the NFL on their channel, they will likely have to pay billions more than they do now. Because of this, FOX CEO Lachlan Murdoch has hinted at a “rebalancing” strategy. Because of this, FOX CEO Lachlan Murdoch has hinted at a ‘rebalancing’ strategy, which involves adjusting its sports portfolio to free up cash for the NFL’s massive bill.

NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell has been very clear about his goals: he wants more money and the biggest possible audience. He is focused on making every game a “must-watch” event that reaches everyone, whether they are watching on traditional cable or a streaming app. This puts networks in a tough spot because they are being asked to pay record-breaking prices, often totaling over $9 billion annually across the entire league, while actually getting fewer exclusive games than they had before.

This “NFL-first” environment is also scaring other sports leagues like the NHL and the PGA Tour. They are worried that if the NFL takes all the networks’ money now, there won’t be anything left in the “bank” when it’s time for their own contracts to be renewed. Analysts call this a ‘hybrid situation,’ where TV networks end up paying more for fewer games, jeopardizing their financial stability.