The very league that makes FOX a broadcast titan could be the one to bring it to its knees. On February 25, 2026, FOX Corporation saw its stock price slide by about 3.3% after a major warning from Bank of America. The bank didn’t just lower its outlook; it “double downgraded” the stock from ‘Buy’ to ‘Underperform’. This move was triggered by fears that FOX is becoming too dependent on the NFL, especially as the costs to keep those games on the air are expected to skyrocket.

The main issue is that FOX’s current deal to broadcast games is part of a massive $110 billion agreement that lasts through 2033. However, experts believe that when it comes time to renew or adjust these rights, the price could jump much higher. Because FOX focused heavily on live sports and news after selling its entertainment assets to Disney years ago, it has less of a safety net than other media giants if costs spiral out of control.

Analysts estimate that these rising fees could soon slash Fox’s core profits. This is because the money FOX makes from commercials and cable companies usually doesn’t grow as quickly as the massive checks it has to write to the NFL. This gap between what they pay and what they earn is making investors very nervous.

“It is our view that an accelerated NFL media rights negotiation would immediately place financial and strategic pressure on Fox,” Bank of America’s analysts wrote in a research document released on Wednesday.

The Fox Corporation is fully cognizant of the looming hurdle. During an earnings call earlier this month, executive chair and CEO Lachlan Murdoch acknowledged the possibility of a “rebalancing” within the company’s sports rights portfolio. That language is often interpreted as corporate shorthand for shedding select properties in order to preserve higher-priority assets.

“It’s obviously tremendous, tremendous content for us. And they’ve been a really fantastic partner,” Murdoch said about the NFL. “We have the ability to offset a portion of any kind of cost increases because we look at our sports portfolio as a whole. We would certainly consider balancing or rebalancing our portfolio as we move forward, when those opportunities become available. So we feel pretty comfortable about the sports business.”

While the NFL remains the most popular thing on TV, the battle to keep those rights, especially with streaming services now bidding for games, puts FOX in a difficult spot. 

The four major media companies (Disney, Comcast, Fox, and Paramount) currently pay a combined $9 billion every year just to show NFL games on their channels. However, that price tag is about to get much higher. 

Financial experts are worried because these companies are now facing several no-win situations. They might be forced to pay billions more in fees while actually getting fewer games to broadcast, or they might pay the high price just to keep the NFL but lose so much money that it hurts their entire business. Investors are now worried that the very games that keep the network alive might become too expensive for the company to afford. 

Why the NFL’s next TV deal spells trouble for FOX

The $9 billion figure is the estimated price of admission for the next era of NFL media rights, and it is currently causing a massive headache for major TV networks. In 2026, experts from Bank of America sounded the alarm, specifically downgrading Fox because the company relies so heavily on football to make money. 

Analysts believe the NFL could explore early renegotiation using opt-out provisions in its current contract to start fresh negotiations this year, much sooner than the original 2029 end date. For a company like FOX, this creates a financial squeeze. 

Additionally, NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell has been very clear about his goals: he wants more money and the biggest possible audience. He is focused on making every game a must-watch event that reaches everyone, whether they are watching on traditional cable or a streaming app. This puts networks in a tough spot because they are being asked to pay record-breaking prices, often totaling over $9 billion annually across the entire league, while actually getting fewer exclusive games than they had before.

This NFL-first environment is also scaring other sports leagues like the NHL and the PGA Tour. They are worried that if the NFL takes all the networks’ money now, there won’t be anything left when it’s time for their own contracts to be renewed. Analysts call this a ‘hybrid situation,’ where TV networks end up paying more for fewer games, jeopardizing their financial stability.