The Detroit Lions have dropped three of their last five, but it’s not because they’ve suddenly turned into a bad team. The issue is much simpler: they’ve come up short in the high-leverage moments that swing close games. Missing key fourth downs like going 0-for-3 in the 31–24 loss to the Green Bay Packers or 0-5 in the Week 11 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles has cost them.

That’s the kind of thing a team can clean up, and Dan Campbell’s group has shown it can bounce back. But there’s a bigger concern that’s harder to brush aside: Jared Goff hasn’t looked like himself. And according to ESPN, that’s tied to a couple of major factors. One of them is that Goff struggles in specific conditions. The kind the Lions could easily run into if they’re forced to play playoff games on the road.

The Lions’ quarterback has shown struggles while playing outdoors in comparison to playing indoors. To put that in perspective, Goff completes a lot more passes indoors (around 68%) than outdoors in cold weather (around 57%). His touchdown-to-interception ratio has also seen a drop from 3.5 to 1.8, and his dropback success rate falls from 49.8% to 40.5%.

The practical takeaway is simple: if the Lions end up playing playoff games on the road in cold, open-air stadiums like Green Bay, Chicago, Philadelphia, or Seattle, those conditions work directly against Goff’s strengths. But the weather isn’t the only thing holding him back. Detroit’s interior offensive line has taken a clear step back this season, and that drop-off has played a major role in his struggles.

For starters, Goff is the least mobile quarterback in the league. He can’t run like Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen. And that means only one thing: Goff can’t escape pressure. He needs protection to progress through reads and make throws. But this season, the offensive line hasn’t been kind to the QB.

Rookie right guard Tate Ratledge replaced veteran Kevin Zeitler, but he’s been average this season. Center Graham Glasgow is doing his best, but he hasn’t come close to replacing Frank Ragnow, who was one of the best centers in the league. Detroit surely tried to bring Ragnow back, but couldn’t because of his health issues. Last but not least, left guard Christian Mahogany has been out for the rest of the season, and his backup, Kayode Awosika, has struggled.

Long story short: The three guys who are supposed to protect the front of the pocket are either injured, downgraded, or underperforming. For most QBs, it’s bad. For Goff, it’s twice as bad, given that he’s not a mobile quarterback. The numbers tell the rest of the tale. Goff has been hit on 20.2% of his dropbacks. which is the highest rate since he joined the Lions. Which is exactly why the Lions can surely bounce back from minor mistakes. But they’ve to tackle a much bigger Jared Goff-related issue.

Dan Campbell will continue his new role on offense

Dan Campbell has taken over play-calling from offensive coordinator John Morton. And even though he’s gone 2–2 in his first four games running the offense, the head coach is convinced he should keep the reins. In his view, staying in charge of the play sheet gives the Lions their best shot moving forward.

“Yeah. I think it’s the right thing to do right now,” the head coach said.

Campbell took over the reins in Week 10 against the Washington Commanders, and his debut couldn’t have gone much better. We’re talking about 44 points, 546 total yards, and a sharp outing from Jared Goff. The QB went 25-of-33 for 320 yards and three touchdowns. Since then, though, it’s been a mixed bag. In Week 11 against the Eagles, the offense stalled, managing just 9 points and 317 yards.

Across his first four games as the play-caller, the Lions are averaging 27.8 points and 436 yards per game. These are strong numbers, but the low-output performance in Philadelphia highlights the inconsistency. With the Dallas Cowboys coming to town next, we’ll find out which version of this offense shows up.