The 2027 NFL Draft is shaping up to be quarterback-heavy for the first time in a couple of years. The 2024 draft saw six quarterbacks selected in the first round. However, that number dropped in the following drafts amid underwhelming quarterback classes. The 2025 first overall pick, Cam Ward, has struggled, while Jaxson Dart is out for the remainder of the season.

Meanwhile, Fernando Mendoza and Ty Simpson, the first-round quarterbacks from the 2026 draft, have yet to start for their respective teams. Despite the recent struggles, scouts and executives around the league were optimistic about the 2027 quarterback class ahead of the 2026 college football season.

An August poll featured Dante Moore as the leading candidate for a first-round selection with 14 votes, followed by Arch Manning with seven. LaNorris Sellers received two votes, while Sam Leavitt and C.J. Carr received one each. Three months into the season, however, the outlook has changed considerably, with Manning among those whose draft prospects have taken the biggest hit.

ESPN recently conducted a midseason poll of 25 scouts and executives, asking who will be the best quarterback of the 2027 NFL Draft class. This time, Oklahoma State’s Drew Mestemaker has received the most votes (17), followed by Carr with four votes, Darian Mensah with three, and Moore with just one vote. Manning, meanwhile, failed to make the list this time amid his struggles.

Drew Mestemaker

While the assessment has certainly taken a hit in three months, it’s not hard to understand why Mestemaker received the most votes while Arch Manning didn’t even make it to the list.

Mestemaker entered the 2026 season with a relatively unusual background. He wasn’t a highly recruited high-school quarterback, didn’t start a varsity game at quarterback during high school, and initially had to earn his opportunity as a walk-on at North Texas.

He eventually became the Mean Green’s starting quarterback in 2025, throwing for 4,379 yards and 34 touchdowns as a redshirt freshman. That performance earned him national recognition and attracted the attention of Oklahoma State’s new coaching staff. When Eric Morris moved from North Texas to Oklahoma State, Mestemaker followed him. And so far, the quarterback has established himself as a top candidate ahead of the 2027 NFL Draft.

Across seven games of the season, he has completed 65.7% of his passes for 2326 yards and 20 touchdowns, while averaging 332.3 yards per game. His performances against Oregon and Colorado, meanwhile, changed his evaluation.

Oklahoma State defeated then-No. 6 Oregon 39-31 in one of the biggest early-season upsets. Mestemaker completed 26 of 43 passes for 317 yards and two touchdowns, while also rushing six times for 109 yards and a rushing touchdown when he somersaulted into the end zone.

Then, his performance against Colorado provided another major boost. Oklahoma State defeated Colorado 57-24, with Mestemaker completing 21 of 36 passes for 386 yards and four touchdowns without throwing an interception. The performance earned him another Manning Award Star of the Week recognition, his second such honor of the season. He had previously received it following the Oregon victory.

At the same time, however, scouts may still be cautious about Drew Mestemaker. Despite receiving 17 votes, Mestemaker isn’t universally viewed as a finished NFL prospect. One of the biggest questions is how much of his success is connected to Eric Morris’ offensive system,

Mestemaker has developed within Morris’ scheme, first at North Texas and now at Oklahoma State. However, NFL teams will want to establish whether he can consistently make the same plays in a different offensive environment. Of course, that doesn’t necessarily undermine his draft stock, but it’s safe to say that Mestemaker will be evaluated in the following weeks.

Arch Manning

Meanwhile, Arch Manning seems to have a different story than he had at the start of the 2026 college football season.

Coming into the season, Manning was widely projected as a top pick. His physical attributes, athleticism, family football pedigree, and flashes of brilliance during his previous appearances at Texas had generated enormous expectations. That optimism, however, has changed drastically.

Through seven games of the season, Manning has completed 63.3% of his passes for 1507 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, while averaging 215.3 yards per game. These numbers aren’t necessarily disastrous in isolation. However, they are considerably less impressive when compared with the expectations surrounding him entering the season.

FOX Sports’ Rob Rang recently broke down Manning’s struggles this month. According to Rang’s analysis, Texas had surrendered 17 sacks through six games. Manning, meanwhile, was sometimes slow to identify defensive pressure before the snap, while appearing too hesitant to leave the pocket despite possessing considerable athletic ability.

At the same time, Rang also highlighted how Manning’s rushing production has declined. In 2025, he rushed 92 times for 399 yards and 10 touchdowns. In 2026, he had already scrambled 49 times but generated only 108 yards, averaging 2.2 yards per attempt. Meanwhile, his struggles with ball security were another reason why he didn’t receive votes from the scouts.

Against Oklahoma, Manning threw two fourth-quarter interceptions, both of which proved particularly costly. The first was a desperate throw that resulted in a pick-six. The second, meanwhile, allowed Oklahoma to set up the game-winning field goal.

Then, against Florida, Manning completed 14 of 20 passes for 173 yards and a touchdown without throwing an interception. However, he lost a game-sealing fumble late in the contest, which became another talking point surrounding his ball security.

Meanwhile, other quarterbacks who were initially expected to be first-round picks in the August poll have also struggled this season.

Dante Moore

Dante Moore, who was expected to be a No. 2 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, has suffered a concussion, affecting his 2026 season. Sam Leavitt, who drew attention from scouts at the start of the season, has struggled with turnovers (8 interceptions) in the first 8 games of the season.

At the same time, it’s also worth noting how the equation has changed in just three months. In another report from August 2026 by NFL Blue Book, Charles Robinson spoke to an NFL General Manager who believed five quarterbacks could potentially be selected in the first round: Manning, Moore, Carr, Leavitt, and Brandon Sorsby.

The general manager was optimistic about the class, particularly because several quarterbacks had the physical tools and potential to develop into first-round prospects. That assessment, however, hit a rough patch three months later, as the same executive now believes that only Carr emerges as the only relatively secure first-round candidate among those five.

That said, Drew Mestemaker currently appears to be a strong contender for a first-round selection next year, while Arch Manning’s struggles have become another major talking point this season. However, with the college football season still underway, it remains to be seen whether the draft outlook will shift again in the coming weeks.