Fernando Mendoza may be the consensus top prospect for the 2026 NFL Draft. Still, former NFL scout Daniel Kelly is delivering a stark warning to the Las Vegas Raiders: drafting him would be a monumental mistake. He noted both Mendoza’s limitations and the Raiders’ situation in his critique.

“If any team dares to draft Fernando Mendoza in the first three rounds, not the first round, but the first three rounds, this guy is an absolute guaranteed bust.”

That is a strong statement about a quarterback who just led the Indiana Hoosiers to a national championship and the program’s first undefeated season. Kelly, however, backed up his criticism by pointing to a broader context surrounding Mendoza’s performance.

According to the former scout, one of Mendoza’s biggest issues shows up when he faces pressure. Kelly pointed specifically to his numbers during the 2025 college football season.

Reports suggest Mendoza ranked No. 262 in time to throw under pressure, according to Pro Football Focus. On average, he took about 3.65 seconds to release the ball when pressured.

In the NFL, that kind of timing can quickly become a problem. Most quarterbacks are expected to get the ball out in roughly two to two and a half seconds. Anything longer usually allows defenders to collapse the pocket, sack the quarterback, or force mistakes such as interceptions.

Kelly’s second concern ties directly to that situation: Mendoza’s drop in accuracy under pressure.

For context, Mendoza completed only 53.2 percent of his passes when pressured by defenders, according to ESPN. The network’s scouting report also noted that the quarterback appears comfortable when operating inside the structure of the pocket. The problems tend to show up when he is forced off his original launch point.

Many of Mendoza’s inaccurate throws occurred when he was flushed outside the pocket or forced into scramble situations. When facing what scouts describe as true pressure, his completion percentage dropped even further to around 50 percent.

Kelly’s primary concern is that these struggles came against college defenses. He believes the adjustment to the faster, more physical, professional level—against players who are all NFL-caliber—will be even more difficult.

The situation becomes even more complicated when you look at the Raiders themselves. Las Vegas is widely expected to consider Mendoza with the first overall pick. Yet the team has struggled heavily in pass protection. The Raiders allowed 50 sacks in 2024 and then led the league with 64 in 2025.

If Mendoza were to land in that environment, he would likely face constant pressure behind an offensive line that has struggled to protect quarterbacks. According to Kelly, that is already the area where the young quarterback appears most vulnerable.

Kelly has previously questioned Mendoza’s NFL projection. When the quarterback chose not to throw at the NFL Scouting Combine, Kelly pointed to what he believes are limitations in Mendoza’s decision-making. He suggested that Mendoza often appears to know where he wants to throw the ball before the snap.

Kelly described him as more of a predetermined one- or two-progression passer, which could become an issue in a league where quarterbacks must consistently read complex defensive coverages after the snap.

Still, despite those concerns, Mendoza is widely viewed as the top quarterback prospect in the 2026 draft class. And the reasons are fairly straightforward. While Kelly notes his struggles under pressure, Mendoza still earned praise for his accuracy and poise.

For instance, across his time at California and during his standout 2025 season with Indiana, Mendoza has thrown for 8,247 yards and 71 touchdowns. Over the course of his college career, he has completed nearly 69 percent of his passes, while also steadily improving his yards per attempt with each passing season.

So while Mendoza clearly enjoyed enormous success at Indiana, some of the traits in his game continue to raise questions among evaluators.

Fernando Mendoza drops outside the top three in offensive prospect rankings

Fernando Mendoza checked almost every possible box with Indiana this past season. An undefeated record, a Heisman Trophy, and a College Football Playoff national championship. Achievements like that usually place a player firmly in the conversation as the top offensive prospect, if not the top overall prospect in the draft.

But not everyone shares that view. Echoing Kelly’s doubts, FOX Sports writer Rob Rang has offered a different take in his latest rankings.

In his latest NFL Draft board, Rang ranked Mendoza No. 4 among offensive prospects rather than placing him at the top. Instead, he named Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love as the best offensive player in this draft class. Rang wrote:

“With all due respect to Heisman Trophy winner and likely No. 1 pick Fernando Mendoza, Love is the best offensive prospect in this class– and frankly, I don’t think it’s particularly close.”

Even so, in the time since Mendoza led the Hoosiers to a national championship, most projections still place him as the likely No. 1 overall pick.