Having the first overall pick can guarantee you a shot at the top prospect in the NFL draft. But it doesn’t guarantee that the player will translate into success for your franchise. The Las Vegas Raiders owner, Mark Davis, who holds that pick this year, knows that script all too well. That’s exactly why, despite being projected to take Fernando Mendoza, Davis is approaching the decision with caution.

“Having the first pick in the draft is exciting because we kind of control the draft — we get to make the decision on who we’re gonna pick,” David said at the Annual League Meeting, per the Raiders’ official site. “But we’ve had that position before, and it didn’t work out. So there’s no magic bullet there, but it’s a great opportunity to get a great player, whoever they decide to pick.”

That reference goes back to 2007. At the time, Davis’ father, Al Davis, was still running the franchise, with Mark working under him. The Raiders used the No. 1 pick on LSU quarterback JaMarcus Russell.

On paper, the expectations were massive. In reality, it unraveled quickly. Russell finished with a 52.1 percent completion rate, an 18 to 23 touchdown to interception ratio, a 65.2 passer rating, and 25 fumbles, 15 of them lost. He went 7-18 as a starter, and the league didn’t hold back in its assessment.

Steve Wyche labeled him the biggest draft bust in NFL history, The Huffington Post included him among the biggest busts of the 2000s, and Bill Williamson called him a talented but extremely disappointing quarterback.

While the Raiders have fumbled before with the first overall pick, that doesn’t automatically mean history might repeat with Mendoza. If anything, his résumé suggests the opposite. A 16-0 season at Indiana, 3,535 passing yards, 41 touchdowns, and a national title all point to why he’s projected as the top pick and why the Raiders are seriously considering him.

However, quarterbacks don’t operate in isolation. If the Raiders want Mendoza to become their franchise guy, the infrastructure around him has to be right. And to their credit, they’ve started moving in that direction.

They spent big to bring in center Tyler Linderbaum, added former San Francisco 49ers guard Spencer Burford, signed receiver Jalen Nailor, and reshaped the linebacker unit with Quay Walker, Nakobe Dean, and Kwity Paye.

Defensively, they also managed to retain Maxx Crosby after the trade noise and whatever went down with the Baltimore Ravens. On the sidelines, they moved on from Pete Carroll and brought in Klint Kubiak following a Super Bowl run.

Even with all of that, the approach remains measured. The expectation isn’t to throw Mendoza straight into the fire. Davis’ caution around the first overall pick ties directly into that. And it likely explains why the Raiders have also brought in a veteran option, someone who can bridge the gap while Mendoza develops before eventually taking over the offense.

The Raiders signed Kirk Cousins before making a move on Fernando Mendoza

At the annual league meeting in Phoenix, first-year head coach Klint Kubiak made it clear he isn’t a fan of throwing Fernando Mendoza into the fire from Day 1.

“Ideally, you don’t want him to start from Day 1. You’d love him to be able to learn behind somebody. That’s in a perfect world. It doesn’t always work out that way. Sometimes they have to play from Day 1, and it’s our job as coaches to get them ready to go. I think it does help the player if they can sit behind a mature adult and watch how they run the show.”

Not long after, the Raiders followed through on that idea. If Mendoza is the pick at No. 1, they now have a plan in place to develop him before handing over the keys. The team signed Kirk Cousins to a five-year deal worth up to $172 million, with $20 million guaranteed this year.

“The Autumn Wind…,” Cousins posted on social media, nodding to the iconic Raiders poem narrated by John Facenda, a staple of the franchise’s identity.

The move also fills an immediate need. After moving on from Geno Smith and Kenny Pickett this offseason, the Raiders were left with Aidan O’Connell and a looming decision at the top of the draft.

Now, the room looks different. Cousins arrives after a pair of uneven seasons with the Atlanta Falcons. When Michael Penix Jr. went down with an injury in 2025, Cousins stepped in and completed 61.7 percent of his passes for 1,721 yards, with 10 touchdowns and five interceptions. His 47.6 QBR ranked tied for 22nd in the league alongside Bryce Young.

So in the short term, Cousins is expected to take the starting job in Vegas. But the bigger picture matters just as much. If Mendoza is the pick, Cousins’ role won’t just be about starting games. It will be about setting the standard, managing the offense, and giving the rookie a model to learn from before eventually taking over.