Mike Tomlin hasn’t had a single losing season since taking charge of the Pittsburgh Steelers. But on the flip side, it’s the same head coach who hasn’t won a postseason game since 2016. The Steelers started strong this year, going 4-1, but after dropping the last couple of games, the chatter’s back.

What if Tomlin and the Steelers stumble in the second half and hand over the division crown to the Baltimore Ravens? Some analysts and reporters think that could be the breaking point for Tomlin in the Steel City. Frank Schwab of Yahoo Sports is one of them.

“Mike Tomlin has been a great coach for many years, and the Steelers don’t like to change coaches,” Schwab noted the obvious before pivoting. “But if the Steelers’ second half rolls out the way I think it will, they’re going to blow a four-and-one start to the season, lose the division to the Ravens.

“And then I think Steelers ownership is going to look around and say, ‘Our quarterback’s not coming back next year. Our defense looks really old. It’s most expensive defense in the NFL, and it’s not very good at all. We don’t really have a lot of talent. This is a rebuild. Maybe we need somebody else to start this rebuild because we haven’t won a playoff game since 2016.’…I think if the Steelers bottom out, like I think they might in the second half, I think it might be it for Mike Tomlin.”

That naturally raises a question: Who does Schwab have as the perfect candidate if the Steelers decide to cut ties with Tomlin? Well, during the conversation, Jori Epstein noted whether the Steelers could swap the coaches. That’s when Schwab came up with a perfect candidate. “That would be the greatest trait ever,” he added. “Just (John) Harbaugh for Tomlin, straight up, who says no.”

Schwab believes a coach’s swap could be an option. Just like Tomlin, Harbaugh has been leading his team for nearly a couple of decades now and has won a Super Bowl as well. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves; it’s something that’s probably not going to happen. At least, not yet.

However, the analyst seems pretty sure that if things fall apart for the Steelers in the second half, Tomlin’s seat could start heating up. The reasoning behind it, as per Schwab, however, is pretty simple.

The Steelers are betting on a Hall of Fame quarterback, Aaron Rodgers. But he won’t be running the offense for them next year. A young signal caller under the center will be the Steelers’ top priority in 2026. They’ve got Will Howard, sure. But expect them to select another prospect next year.

Additionally, the Steelers have invested heavily in their defense for 2025. But did that benefit them over the course of eight weeks? Some might doubt it. They first brought Darius Slay to add depth to the secondary. But he’s yet to live up to the expectations, considering he has had 27 combined tackles in seven games so far.

On top of that, Pittsburgh also brought Jalen Ramsey via a trade with the Miami Dolphins. He’s been solid at times; there’s no denying that. But not elite enough to help a struggling defense. In the process, the Steelers’ defense has allowed 30+ points in four of their seven games this season. It’s something the Steelers never did since 2003. On top of that, they haven’t generated a sack in the last game.

Long story short: The Steelers are still a playoff contender this season. But in case things didn’t work out the way they want in the second half, Schwab fears that that’ll be all for Tomlin. While he flirted with the idea of a coach swap, the Steelers are expected to rebuild in the next season.

When could the ownership decide on Mike Tomlin’s coaching?

One of the biggest questions floating around the Steel City right now is simple: when will Mike Tomlin actually be on the hot seat? But the answer isn’t that straightforward. Some folks believe Tomlin’s job is as safe as ever, while others think the clock’s ticking. Steelers reporter and insider Ray Fittipaldo, though, took a slightly different angle when he weighed in on the same question.

“Probably when there is only a year left on his deal,” Fittipaldo wrote,” which is a pretty blunt take, but one that’s definitely worth noting when you think about it.

After all, the Steelers don’t actually believe in coaching changes. They’ve had just three head coaches since 1969. On top of that, the team’s owner, Art Rooney II, has refused to decide on letting Tomlin go. This is why it all comes down to Tomlin’s deal.

The HC signed a three-year extension with the Steelers just last year. That means he’s set to stick with the team through the 2027 season. However, Fittipaldo believes that if the struggles continue and the team doesn’t live up to the mark this year or next, then expect Rooney to let Mike Tomlin go. At least, that’s what the analysts believe.