Carlos Alcaraz is just one win away from finishing the year as World No. 1, but the battle at the ATP Finals is far from over. Even after his big comeback win against Taylor Fritz in 7‑5, 6‑3, the Spanish star knows there’s one key factor that could give his rival, Jannik Sinner, a real advantage – something he’s fully aware of and determined not to let happen.

Against Fritz, he lost the first set 6‑7 (2) but fought back to win 7‑5, 6‑3 in almost three hours. Now, he only needs to beat Lorenzo Musetti in his last round-robin match or win in the semifinals to secure the top spot for the second time. When asked about being so close to No. 1, Alcaraz said, “I try not to think about it, to be honest. Obviously, it’s going to be a really big match for me. I will try not to let the nerves play a bad time for me in that match.” In other words, he’s focused on staying calm and not letting the pressure get to him.

If he did let nerves creep in, Sinner could seize the opportunity because he thrives under pressure. He rarely lets a bad point or the crowd affect his game. As Sinner once said, “I like to dance in the pressure storm.” That’s the challenge Alcaraz faces: if he lets nerves creep in, Sinner could use it to keep the race for year-end No. 1 alive.

Alcaraz added, “I’ll try to control the emotions, to control myself. I’ll think about my goals in the match. I’ll try to feel much better than today with my shots, with the serve, with everything.” He also said, “Obviously, it’s going to be a big day. Right now, I’m going to enjoy this win and try to rest as much as I can to be ready for the match.” His approach is clear: stay composed, focus on preparation, and don’t let the pressure decide the outcome. But could this calm approach be the key to sealing year-end No. 1?

Alcaraz, now 2‑0 at the season-ending event for the top eight players, could clinch a semifinal spot if Alex de Minaur beats Musetti later. If he doesn’t win another match and Sinner remains undefeated, that’s how  Sinner could still finish No. 1. But with every point critical, who will seize the advantage as the tournament progresses?

Alcaraz produced 47 winners to Fritz’s 38 and managed to come back from a set down despite 14 aces from his American opponent. He now tops the Jimmy Connors group ahead of Fritz, who stands at 1‑1, while Alex de Minaur and Lorenzo Musetti are both 0‑1. And as we know, only the top two finishers in each group advance to the semifinals. Sinner leads his group after beating Felix Auger-Aliassime in his opener on Monday. While he still has a small chance to overtake Alcaraz, it’s looking extremely difficult.

This is a developing story…