UFC 323 was supposed to be the night Alexandre Pantoja either cemented his flyweight legacy or ran into the 24-year-old sensation, Joshua Van, ready to redefine the division. Instead, the fight lasted barely a minute. One slip, one awkward fall, and the champion was on the mat, clutching a bent arm that no fighter wants to see. In an instant, the topic changed from who wins to is Pantoja’s night, or even his career, over?

When the referee waved it off, the entire arena felt it. This wasn’t a freak stumble or something he could easily shake off. Even Joe Rogan sounded rattled upon watching the replay: “Oh man. That might not just be a dislocation… that might be a broken arm.” Just like that, the UFC 323 conversation shifted from legacy and title defenses to timelines, rehabilitation, and a champion forced to pause everything.

Understanding Pantoja’s injury and realistic recovery expectations

The way Alexandre Pantoja’s arm bent backward suggested that he had suffered a significant fracture or fracture-dislocation, which almost always required surgery. Bones can heal in six to twelve weeks, but a fighter’s true rehabilitation takes much longer: developing grip strength, elbow stability, and trust in the joint.

Realistically, he’s looking at four to six months out, with tougher cases pushing nine to twelve. It’s also worth noting that this isn’t Pantoja’s first time dealing with a serious elbow injury. In 2017, only days after signing to face Neil Seery, he dislocated his right elbow while training with a middleweight. He felt it pop out and snap back into place.

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He found out he had ruptured one ligament and partially damaged two others—but he still wanted to fight. “I was tense and almost cried because I thought I wouldn’t be able to fight anymore,” he said in an interview. He was unable to train for a week and spent the following three weeks in physical rehabilitation, relying nearly completely on running and kicks because punching was impossible.

His rehabilitation came only after heavyweight star Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira directed him to ARP wave therapy, a notoriously painful but highly efficient treatment that kept Alexandre Pantoja in the fight. That past is still relevant today. Pantoja has previously recovered from elbow injuries, but the one sustained at UFC 323 appears to be significantly more severe. This time, he won’t be able to grit his teeth or use modified training. His arm will dictate the timeline, not his willpower.

What lies ahead once Alexandre Pantoja returns?

Despite losing the title under chaotic circumstances, Pantoja’s status in the division remains unchanged. He remains one of the world’s top flyweights, having defended the title numerous times and defeated Brandon Moreno, Royval, and other strong contenders. Historically, UFC champions with such a resume are nearly always considered for an immediate rematch.

That is especially the case if the new champion is young, inexperienced, and requires a decisive follow-up win to establish credibility. However, time will be everything. Pantoja, 35, may adopt a strategic approach depending on how long the rehabilitation takes. If Joshua Van defends the title before Pantoja is cleared, the UFC may place him in a No. 1 contender fight against Royval, Amir Albazi, or Manel Kape to reestablish momentum.

But, if the division moves slowly, as it often does in flyweight, a direct rematch becomes the most obvious option. Either way, the belt leaving his waist doesn’t close his window. Pantoja will return to the division’s top ranks once his arm has healed, seeking immediate vengeance or the quickest way back to gold. The only opponent he cannot control right now is time, something he has faced before, but never with such high stakes.