“It’s an interesting fight,” Merab Dvalishvili said on UFC 320 media day. His reasons were simple: “I mean, I’m a grappler. He’s a striker and grappler wants to knock him out.” On Saturday night, the Georgian, who has been holding his bantamweight title tightly, will resist another attempt at his belt. Unlike the previous instances, the challenge poses a serious threat. He faces Cory Sandhagen, the formidable striker from Aurora, Colorado.

Sandhagen, despite consistent performances that earned him a slew of Performance of the Night honors, failed to convert his last two title eliminator attempts. He now wants to make the most of the opportunity that has landed in his lap. Merab Dvalishvili‘s fearsome reputation, however, does not seem to impress him. “Merab is going to have to deal with me,” he said during an interview with UFC. Will the 33-year-old finally capitalize on the chance he has received after a long time? Or will he, like many others before him, become just another name stacked on Dvalishvili’s glittering record?

Merab Dvalishvili vs. Cory Sandhagen: Height, weight, record, age, and rankings

Let’s run through the details before we check who has the better chance of winning. Starting with the records, Dvalishvili and Sandhagen match up well in terms of experience. Making his professional debut in 2014, the Georgian waited three years before joining the UFC. Fate, however, dealt him a blow. He lost his first two bouts. If one imagined that Merab Dvalishvili was done, one only needed to hear what he said. Reflecting on his early setback, he admitted, “I was heartbroken… I was thinking, maybe I wasn’t good enough. Maybe I should quit.”

Thankfully, he stayed put. Since then, he has been on a 13-win streak and now sits atop the bantamweight rankings. His professional record stands at 20 wins. His four losses are evenly split between his UFC career and earlier promotions such as Ring of Combat and Cage.

Roughly a year after Dvalishvili’s debut, Cory Sandhagen began his mixed martial arts journey. After competing at Prize FC and Legacy Fighting Alliance, he impressed recruiters and secured a spot on the 2018 UFC on Fox: Jacaré vs. Brunson 2 card. He won four straight fights until Dvalishvili’s close friend and stablemate Aljamain Sterling stopped him in the first round of their title eliminator.

Setbacks followed in 2021 when TJ Dillashaw and Petr Yan handed him defeats. Still, Sandhagen stayed determined. A loss to Umar Nurmagomedov added another setback, but Sandhagen bounced back in May when he knocked out former champion Deiveson Figueiredo. Out of 23 matches, Sandhagen has won 18. His five losses include one stoppage and four decision losses.

Standing at 5 feet 11 inches (180 centimeters), Cory Sandhagen holds a 5-inch height advantage over Merab Dvalishvili, who measures 5 feet 6 inches (168 centimeters). The American also enjoys an edge in reach. Against Dvalishvili’s 68-inch (173-centimeter) reach, Sandhagen boasts a 70-inch (178-centimeter) wingspan. And this brings us to weight.

Drastic weight cuts can take everything away from a fighter on fight night, but these two won’t have to worry about it. Sandhagen is one of the few fighters competing in a class close to his natural weight. He reportedly cuts only around 10 lbs before a fight. Merab is not too far off the mark either.

‘The Machine’ reportedly walks around at 155, meaning he cuts about 20 lbs on a bad day, and still performs the way he does. So, you can expect little to no surprises on the weighing in side of things. Therefore, we must now turn our attention to other fighter data.

Striking vs. Wrestling: What to expect from Dvalishvili vs. Sandhagen at UFC 320

Strike efficiency shows a steady contrast. Out of Merab Dvalishvili’s 20 victories, the overwhelming majority (15) came via decision. He has three knockout wins and two submission victories. He connected 45% of his 2,533 strike attempts, landing around 1,074 strikes at a rate of 4.31 per minute. He defended 56% of strikes against him, absorbing only 2.48 per minute.

The plot shifts when it comes to takedowns. Out of 272 attempts, the wrestler succeeded 36% of the time, landing 17 takedowns at an average of 5.84 per 15 minutes. His grappling mastery shows in his 83% takedown defense. For a wrestler, Dvalishvili surprisingly prefers to fight standing, often aiming for his opponent’s head.

His tall opponent is the quintessential striker. With 45% striking accuracy (2,358 attempts vs. 1,064 landed), Sandhagen averages 5 strikes per minute while absorbing 3.34. Eight of his wins came via knockout, three via submission, and seven via decision. His takedown accuracy stands at 35%. Averaging 1.28 takedowns per 15 minutes, he has defended 63% of attempts against him.

Like Dvalishvili, Sandhagen prefers targeting the head to secure early knockouts.

Final Prediction: Who has the edge?

Oddsmakers have picked their favorite. Merab Dvalishvili will enter the cage as a -375 favorite. Cory Sandhagen comes in as the underdog with +295 odds.

The confidence in Dvalishvili stems from his grappling skills. With names like Henry Cejudo and Umar Nurmagomedov on his resume, the Georgian has faced tough challenges in recent times. Widely known for his cardio, Dvalishvili can push the pace until the final bell.

That is something Cory Sandhagen must confront. He lost a decision to Nurmagomedov last September.

The Colorado native remains undeterred. He appears confident about flipping the script. “I’m not gonna buy into the narrative that Merab is this unbeatable thing. I don’t think that he is. I think that I have some of the best conditioning as well, so he’s not gonna be able to get me tired like he has been able to with the other guys,” he said.

But Sandhagen may want to listen to what former adversary Aljamain Sterling had to say. “The only person who I can see beating him (Dvalishvili) is himself,” Sterling said in an interview with MMA Crazy.

Fans can expect Sandhagen to stay out of Dvalishvili’s reach. Striking early, he will try to knock out the Georgian. If he fails, the champion could grow stronger as the rounds progress. Dvalishvili has already made his intentions clear to knock out Sandhagen. “I’m planning to strike with Cory Sandhagen,” he told CBS Sports’ Shakiel Mahjouri, hinting that 90% of the fight will be spent striking.

At UFC 320, it’s a clash of styles that promises spectators and millions of fans an unforgettable, edge-of-the-seat experience.

Between Sandhagen and Dvalishvili, who’s your pick for the win?