The F1 driver market is finally witnessing a concrete seat finalization. As per F1 TV presenter Lawrence Barretto, Mercedes Team Principal Toto Wolff had Andrea Kimi Antonelli at the top of his list to replace Lewis Hamilton, followed by Fernando Alonso, and Carlos Sainz. As it turns out, Wolff has already planned to sign the 17-year-old, blocking Sainz’s possible swap.

According to Barretto’s co-host, Will Buxton, the Mercedes Team Principal is still hung up on a mistake from 10 years ago. In 2014, Wolff had passed up the opportunity to sign a promising 16-year-old Max Verstappen for the Silver Arrows. Red Bull made the most of his mistake and the rest is history. Buxton reveals that Wolff has decided to sign Andrea Kimi Antonelli for Mercedes to avoid repeating that mistake. With that, Carlos Sainz’s move too gets blocked.

“Mercedes is not happening (for Carlos Sainz),” Buxton said on the Red Flags podcast. “Antonelli is going to Mercedes… Toto has made his mind up. I think Toto has made his mind up. He wants Antonelli in the seat. He’s pissed that he missed the opportunity to give Max the opportunity back in 2014.”

Further explaining the dynamics of a high-functioning team like Mercedes, he said, “2025 is a write-off for them anyway until the new regulations in ’26. So you bring him in, no pressure, get him to know the team, get him to work with George, understand what Mercedes are all about. Bam! New car, new regulations in 2026, go for the title! Go and have a run at it.”

Buxton’s declaration does bring up a question. Why shouldn’t Antonelli have to serve his time at the junior team Williams first before a Mercedes promotion? The F1 TV presenter explained that as well.

Toto Wolff urged to keep Andrea Kimi Antonelli away from Williams

Williams has been a ‘feeder’ team for Mercedes for a while now. George Russell spent 3 years with the team before Toto Wolff promoted him to the prized seat alongside Lewis Hamilton. But applying the same logic for Andrea Kimi Antonelli would be detrimental to the team, Will Buxton believes.

“If you put him in a Williams in ’25 and then you bring him in Mercedes with the expectation in ’26, he’s got to relearn everything,” Buxton said. “No! You bring him in straightaway (into Mercedes) and get him to learn top table.”

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If what Buxton says is true, the Mercedes doors have been closed for any silly season moments. And Carlos Sainz might only be left with Audi unless Red Bull shakes up the market.

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