Tiger Woods has had almost as many surgeries as he has major titles. Behind that buff body, his fans have grown accustomed to seeing a patchwork of repairs. Yet the fans always hope for a comeback. But with him recovering from his 7th back surgery, at almost 50, the question of his speedy recovery and comeback feels heavier than ever. The discussion came up on SiriusXM PGA Tour Radio this week, when former PGA Tour pro Will MacKenzie and golf analyst Jason Sobel discussed Tiger’s latest lumbar disc replacement surgery.

“I’ve had a lot of surgery in my day myself, and that does not sound good for Tiger,” MacKenzie said with a sombre tone. “We all want Tiger to come out on the other side stronger, healthier, and play again. But man, this is just one tacked onto another of bad injuries, and I’m worried about it. He’s going to be in this cocoon for a while, working to get back where he’s walking again,” before adding. “We’re just hoping.”

Sobel, who’s covered Woods for decades, echoed that sentiment, but there was realism in his voice.

“Would I like to see him go out and play the Masters next year and contend? Yeah, that’d be really cool,” he said. “But I want to see Tiger do what Tiger wants to do… I don’t know that Tiger necessarily wants to. He hasn’t voiced that in quite a while.”

Sobel’s point hits on Woods’ pattern of chasing greatness. He undoubtedly changed the face of modern golf when he debuted in the late 1990s, with increased viewership, a focus on athleticism, and much more. But, recently, Woods has not quite put out in the world what he wants to do. He’s no longer the man declaring he’ll “get back to number one.” This makes Sobel wonder if we’ll ever see Woods again “in something more than a ceremonial role.”

That distinction — ceremonial vs. competitive — is every sport’s ultimate reality. Whether it is taking the box of commentary or hitting a drive before the Masters Tournament, every aging great eventually faces this. And for Tiger, that might soon become a reality. The list of his surgeries reads long. Now, inching towards 50, the body’s tolerance for rebuilding is running thin. That narrows his chances of even contesting on the Senior Tour, as many have consoled themselves with. On social media, too, there has been a rallying call for his retirement.

MacKenzie was blunt about the odds. “It’s going to be very difficult for Tiger to get back and play competitive golf again,” he said. “There are just too many surgeries, so many microdiscectomies, all the knee surgeries. It’s going to be tough. I’m praying, I hope. But for him to really grind and even play on the Champions Tour, it’s a massive ask.”

Soon to be eligible to contest on the Champions Tour, many notable voices have expressed their innate desire for Woods to try his hand on the Senior Tour. Ernie Els was advising Woods to try shooting a 66 on the senior Tour a few months ago: “Get your confidence up, make those birdie putts under the gun.” Jack Nicklaus, too, earlier this year, predicted that Woods’s game would eventually get better once he sets foot on the Senior Tour. “He’ll probably dominate the senior tour.”

But amidst all these desires to see the Big Cat swinging his clubs with other veterans, what people forget is that Woods’ body is now weakening with every single medical procedure performed on it. And that makes it very difficult for him to be on any course, be it senior or regular.

Why is it difficult for Woods to make a comeback?

The microdiscectomies mentioned by Will MacKenzie are minimally invasive spine procedures. Wood has had several of them since 2014. In this, surgeons remove herniated disc fragments pressing on the spinal nerve. If repeated, they create scar tissue that weakens surrounding structures.

The 2017 fusion, at the L5-S1 level, was once considered his last hope. It was also the one that led Woods to his unforgettable 2019 Masters win. But fusions shift stress to the disc above. And sure enough, that’s exactly where his current injury lies: L4-L5.

The surgery was successful, thanks to his surgeon, Dr. Sheeraz Qureshi, but the path back to golf is brutal. Recovery from disc replacement takes six to eight weeks. The time is far longer before full rotation and torque return. For a golfer, that’s the entire motion pattern.

That’s why Jason Sobel and MacKenzie’s hopes now sound less about majors and more about mobility. “Whether that’s just getting around and walking without too much pain, fine,” Sobel said. “Whether it’s playing competitive golf again, great… I want Tiger to be able to do whatever he wants to do.” MacKenzie agrees: “Let’s get healthy where he can watch Charlie play and play fun golf.”

They have their reasons. Woods hasn’t played a full PGA Tour event since missing the cut at the 2024 Open Championship. His last win came six years ago at the 2019 Zozo Championship. Since then, there has been silence. He did win the PGA Tour’s Player Impact Program last year, but that was for his name alone, rather than his performance. His name was recently missing from the Hero World Challenge. Meanwhile, Charlie Woods is emerging as a great force in Junior Golf.

These are the reasons why Tiger has indulged himself in new ventures like TGL, SDR. He has also invested in Full Swing Golf. His executive roles within the PGA Tour add to the list. So, as Sobel put it best, maybe the most we can hope for now is that Tiger gets to do what he wants — even if that means finally putting the grind behind him.