Forty-seven home runs from a catcher should be enough to stop any MVP conversation cold, but Aaron Judge’s supporters in the Bronx refuse to surrender. The numbers tell a heartbreaking story for Yankees fans – while Judge dominated multiple offensive categories before his flexor injury, Cal Raleigh quietly assembled a season that threatens to shatter 48 years of catching precedent. Well, you know? When a backstop sits one home run shy of Salvador Pérez’s 2021 record and leads the Yankees’ superstar in games played and plate appearances, the MVP narrative shifts from inevitable to impossible.

This isn’t your typical MVP battle where offensive numbers tell the whole story. The substantiation runs deeper than raw statistics, touching the very essence of positional value and team impact. While Judge continues to post elite numbers across multiple categories, Raleigh’s emergence as a power-hitting catcher has created a compelling case that traditional metrics might not fully capture.

Jon Heyman didn’t mince words when he joined Joel Sherman on “THE SHOW,” delivering a verdict that Yankees fans won’t want to hear. “Why is Cal Raleigh the American League MVP with a quarter of a season left?” Heyman asked. “Yeah, I didn’t even look at the odds. Apparently Judge is a slight favorite. I’m just giving my opinion that right now, to me, Raleigh is slightly ahead.” The statement cuts through the statistical noise – while Judge holds advantages in multiple offensive categories, Heyman’s assessment prioritizes the unprecedented nature of Raleigh’s 47 home runs from the catching position, just one shy of Salvador Pérez’s 2021 record.

The positional scarcity Raleigh represents transforms this MVP debate entirely. “You know the reason I believe that he’s the MVP is uh you know I know everybody looks at the stats and they’re comparing and Judge is ahead and all these little other categories not little these are the big categories,” Heyman explained. “Uh, but you know it’s partly about the narrative too. We’re talking about a catcher.” The numbers back his argument – Heyman noted that “the average catcher has an OPS plus well below 100. Well, well below 90? It’s somewhere in that 90 category, usually year after year.” Raleigh’s production from baseball’s most taxing position creates value that raw offensive numbers can’t quantify, especially with Judge’s month-long absence because of his flexor injury, limiting his games played compared to Raleigh’s availability.

The advanced metrics expose the complexity of this race while undermining traditional stat-based arguments. “If you’re going to make it a WAR argument, uh, and Judge leads in WAR, I always start with what WAR, you know, baseball reference, he’s 6’9, Raleigh’s 5’7. Fan graphs WAR 7’4 to Raleigh 7,” Heyman stated. “So, like, we can’t even agree what WAr is.” The contradiction becomes more damaging to Judge’s case when Heyman applied historical context: “If you’re going to go by WAE and you’re a Yankee fan, say look at the WAR. I’d say, okay, let’s go look at the war. We need to revoke Thurman Munson’s uh MVP. He didn’t even lead the Yankees in war. Mickey Rivers did in ’76, and George Brett was way ahead of him.” The precedent demolishes WAR-only arguments for MVP voting.

The playoff implications add urgency to this debate, with both teams currently tied in the standings. “John, I think you made a key point, which is that the two teams, as we’re speaking, are tied. There are three teams tied for the three wild cards. They’re a couple of games ahead of Kansas City and uh the Guardians,” Heyman observed.

The mathematical reality creates additional pressure – Raleigh leads Judge in games played, plate appearances, and stolen bases, while Judge’s injury absence continues affecting his cumulative totals. “I think it’s very close. I think a compelling case, your word, I think it was a good word, could be made for both sides. But to act like this is a runaway one way or the other is ridiculous. Raleigh is clearly in this race.” Sometimes the most valuable player survives not just on peak performance, but on sustained availability when teams need it most.

Yet while Raleigh’s catching prowess dominates the MVP conversation, Judge’s supporters aren’t conceding defeat without showcasing their ace’s most lethal weapon. The Yankees slugger possesses a psychological advantage that transforms entire games before most fans finish their first hot dog.

Aaron Judge’s First-Inning Magic Still Powers Yankees

But this MVP conversation overlooks Aaron Judge’s most devastating weapon – his ability to terrorize pitchers before they’ve even settled into their rhythm. Tuesday night’s explosion against Tampa Bay reminded everyone why opposing managers lose sleep over their first-inning matchups.

Aaron Judge crushed his 40th homer of 2025 in the opening frame, triggering a three-homer barrage that included bombs from Cody Bellinger and Giancarlo Stanton. That blast marked something unprecedented – Judge became the first player in baseball history to record multiple seasons with 15-plus first-inning homers. According to Baseball Reference researcher Katie Sharp, no other player has ever accomplished this feat twice.

The numbers reveal that Aaron Judge’s first-inning dominance reaches almost supernatural levels. Last season, he demolished 18 first-inning pitches into the seats. This year, he’s already sitting at 15, representing 37.5% of his total home runs from just 22.5% of his plate appearances.

Tuesday’s moonshot ignited a nine-homer offensive explosion that proved Judge’s early-game impact extends far beyond personal statistics. When the Yankees captain sets the tone in the first inning, his teammates follow suit. Well, you know? That’s exactly the kind of leadership impact that traditional MVP metrics struggle to quantify.