Feb 22, 2026 | 8:02 PM EST
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MLB, Baseball Herren, USA Playoffs-Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees Oct 8, 2025 Bronx, New York, USA New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge 99 reacts to striking during the eighth inning against the Toronto Blue Jays during game four of the ALDS round for the 2025 MLB playoffs at Yankee Stadium. Bronx Yankee Stadium New York USA, EDITORIAL USE ONLY PUBLICATIONxINxGERxSUIxAUTxONLY Copyright: xBradxPennerx 20251008_pjc_ae5_788
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MLB, Baseball Herren, USA Playoffs-Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees Oct 8, 2025 Bronx, New York, USA New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge 99 reacts to striking during the eighth inning against the Toronto Blue Jays during game four of the ALDS round for the 2025 MLB playoffs at Yankee Stadium. Bronx Yankee Stadium New York USA, EDITORIAL USE ONLY PUBLICATIONxINxGERxSUIxAUTxONLY Copyright: xBradxPennerx 20251008_pjc_ae5_788
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MLB, Baseball Herren, USA Playoffs-Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees Oct 8, 2025 Bronx, New York, USA New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge 99 reacts to striking during the eighth inning against the Toronto Blue Jays during game four of the ALDS round for the 2025 MLB playoffs at Yankee Stadium. Bronx Yankee Stadium New York USA, EDITORIAL USE ONLY PUBLICATIONxINxGERxSUIxAUTxONLY Copyright: xBradxPennerx 20251008_pjc_ae5_788
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MLB, Baseball Herren, USA Playoffs-Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees Oct 8, 2025 Bronx, New York, USA New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge 99 reacts to striking during the eighth inning against the Toronto Blue Jays during game four of the ALDS round for the 2025 MLB playoffs at Yankee Stadium. Bronx Yankee Stadium New York USA, EDITORIAL USE ONLY PUBLICATIONxINxGERxSUIxAUTxONLY Copyright: xBradxPennerx 20251008_pjc_ae5_788
Right after his first spring training game this year, Aaron Judge talked about the Yankees’ “unfinished business” after falling short of a deep postseason run last October. He said the roster they’ve put together this season is built to finish the job.
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But according to MLB insider Jim Riley, that path won’t be easy, especially with the Blue Jays in the picture. If you remember, Toronto gave the Yankees serious problems last year, and Riley doesn’t see that changing much in 2026. The big reason? Pitching.
Riley believes the Yankees simply haven’t been able to match up with the Blue Jays’ pitching staff, and that gap could be the difference again this season.
“This Yankees team is really going to be counting on Garrit Cole to be the difference maker year over year. And really, it just boils down to when does Garrit Cole get back to Garrit Cole form… You’ve got Dylan Cease added into that rotation. It’s going to be a really good year for the Toronto Blue Jays. I think they win the division again,”
Riley offers his prediction via YouTube.
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Well, one of the biggest gaps the Yankees just couldn’t make up for last year was the absence of Gerrit Cole. That’s why, heading into this season, so much of their hope is riding on him. And why not? Cole has been money in the postseason, posting a 2.93 ERA across 12 playoff appearances with the Yankees. So, if they want to finally get past that ALCS wall they ran into last year, he’s clearly their biggest swing.
That said, Riley isn’t fully sold yet. He’s cautious about how quickly the Yankees will get the prime Cole back. Coming off Tommy John surgery, Cole is still ramping up in spring training. While the signs are encouraging, it’s going to take time before he’s truly back at his peak.
Meanwhile, the Blue Jays are in a much better position, especially when it comes to pitching. Riley believes Toronto is primed to reclaim the AL East, largely because of a revamped rotation led by Dylan Cease.
If you remember, last year, the Jays’ starting rotation was pretty average. They finished with a 4.19 ERA that ranked right in the middle of the pack. But this season should look different. Even though Cease had a 4.55 ERA in 2025, the underlying numbers tell a much better story. This includes a 3.43 xERA and an eye-popping 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings!
For Riley, that pitching edge is what separates the Blue Jays from the Yankees right now.
“We’ve got a lot of unfinished business from last season, especially the way it ended for us,” Judge said on Sunday.
Let’s be real, beating the Blue Jays was a big part of that unfinished business, too. The question is, with Toronto’s pitching looking stronger and Cole still working his way back, will the Yankees actually be able to close the gap this time around?
The Blue Jays’ offense could be another differentiator
“But the progression for guys like Barger and Clement new addition of Kazuma Okamoto, I think that will do very well for their lineup,” Riley further added.
So while the Blue Jays’ offense is still largely driven by Vladimir Guerrero Jr., there’s been this idea floating around that they took a hit after Bo Bichette moved on. But honestly, that narrative doesn’t really hold up. Because in reality, Toronto’s lineup might be even more dangerous now.
With guys like Addison Barger, Ernie Clement, and Kazuma Okamoto anchoring the middle of the order, the Jays’ offense looks amped up across the board. Clement, for example, hit .277 last season and set a franchise postseason record with 30 hits. This time, slotted in as the primary second baseman, he’s a nightmare in the making for pitchers!
Barger adds even more punch. He put up a .243/.301/.454 slash line with 21 HRs last year. This time, he is pegged as a breakout candidate in right field, with a real shot at clearing 25 bombs this season. And then there’s Okamoto, a six-time NPB All-Star with 248 career HRs, stepping in as Bichette’s replacement!
So it’s not just the rotation that gives the Blue Jays an edge. Their offense is stacked, too, and that means Yankees pitching, including Gerrit Cole, is in for a serious test once again. Pretty much exactly what we saw play out last season.
