Atlanta Braves ace Spencer Strider is back on the mound. But not everyone’s convinced it’ll be smooth sailing. One Braves Hall of Famer recently threw a bucket of cold water on the optimism surrounding his return, hinting at a difficult path back to being that dominant guy again.

Strider’s 2025 season began with anticipation following his recovery from right elbow surgery. He made his debut on April 16 against the Toronto Blue Jays, pitching five innings and allowing two runs. However, on April 21st, just a week later, he was put back on the IL with a right hamstring strain. Strider was back to take on the Washington Nationals on May 20th. He threw 4.1 innings in that start, in which the Braves lost 5-3, giving up four runs on six hits and a walk while his fastball averaged 95.0 mph.

Hall of Famer John Smoltz feels there is a real test looming for the $75 million star. While Strider’s ability is not in question, Smoltz’s comments hint at a difficult path back to being that dominant guy again. It’s not just about physical recovery—it’s about adjusting to subtle but critical shifts.

During a recent episode of the Flippin’ Bats podcast, titled “YOSHINOBU YAMAMOTO’S NL CY YOUNG PUSH, SPENCER STRIDER RETURNS & MLB’S BEST TEAM,” John Smoltz shared his concerns. “And now we’ll find out what version of Spencer Strider,” Smoltz began. “I think by the end of the year, he’s going to be just fine. But it’s going to take some time to learn how you can’t miss in the middle of the zone when you don’t have the extra hop…”

Smoltz continued, pinpointing a critical adjustment Strider might need. “You can’t just think you’re going to get away with it and generate. See what makes him great. He doesn’t have to generate excessive forces to throw 100, but now he might be forcing velocity that he ordinarily wouldn’t have to do. And that’s a problem if that’s what he’s doing,” he concluded, highlighting a potential pitfall.

Braves’ 2025 hopes: The Strider factor

So, what’s this “extra hop” that Smoltz was talking about? It is the “ride” and induced vertical break on fastballs that makes the pitch appear to defy gravity, often deceiving hitters. Strider’s fastball, which averaged 97.2 mph in 2023, has dipped to around 95.0–95.4 mph in his early 2025 starts, losing some of that signature rise. Pitches left in the middle of the plate are extremely hittable at this level. His margin for error has shrunk considerably.

For Strider, if he’s trying to muscle his way back to his old velocity readings (like the 95.0 mph against the Nationals, or even 93-94 mph seen in a simulated game), it could be a risky path, potentially leading to less effective pitches or even further injury.

Strider’s 2025 numbers so far show a clear-cut drop in his average fastball velocity versus his dominant 2023. While his strikeout ability remains potent (13 in just 5.1 innings in a Triple-A rehab start), and he’s wisely working on a revamped changeup and slider, the fastball is his signature. Smoltz’s point is that Strider might need to learn to succeed even if that signature pitch has slightly different characteristics post-injury, rather than trying to violently recreate its past self.

John Smoltz can talk from a position of deep expertise. He also endured major injuries during his own Hall of Fame career, which included Tommy John surgery in 2000. Before that, his fastball clocked as high as 98 mph. After undergoing surgery, he adjusted to a loss of velocity and famously evolved from a decorated starter (winning a Cy Young in 1996 with 24 wins) to an elite closer, setting an NL record with 55 saves in 2002. He’s the only pitcher in history with over 200 wins and 150 saves.

As the Atlanta Braves navigate the 2025 season, where they currently sit third in the NL East with a 24-26 record, Strider’s (healthy) return to form is hopefully vital. The recent electrifying comeback of Ronald Acuña Jr has certainly boosted the team. Now, all eyes are on their ace pitcher. Can Spencer Strider heed the subtle warnings, make the necessary tweaks, and once again become that unhittable force on the mound? His journey will be a key storyline to follow.