When the last out was caught in a mitt on July 2nd in Pittsburgh (PNC Park) there was no celebratory gesture or loud cheer. Just a nod from the pitcher and a calm stroll back, to the team’s bench. But that calm moment marked a historic night. As the crowd stood to cheer, one thing became clear: trade season just found its most intriguing arm.

That arm belongs to Mitch Keller, the 28-year-old right-hander who tossed seven shutout innings that night and became PNC Park’s all-time strikeout leader. And now, he’s the center of a growing bidding war between the Chicago Cubs and the New York Mets. Keller’s record may say 3–10, but the numbers behind it, 3.64 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 12 quality starts, paint the picture of a durable, top-of-the-rotation arm in a league desperate for exactly that.

“Almost every contending team is going to go for a starting pitcher,” Jon Heyman said on The Mully & Haugh Show. “You’re going to have to overpay to get Mitch Keller.”

And that’s where things get complicated. The Mets have the money and the urgency, after all, their rotation is crumbling with Kodai Senga, Sean Manaea, and others on the shelf. But money isn’t the only factor in this chase. The Pirates, reportedly open to moving Keller despite signing him to a $77 million extension earlier this year, are demanding serious prospect capital.

What makes Keller even more valuable is this: he’s not a rental. He’s under team control through 2028, and he’s pitching like a frontline anchor right when the market is thinnest. Few names like Freddy Peralta or Seth Lugo could be available, but none check as many boxes as Keller.

Bottom line? If the Pirates move him, it’s going to cost someone a lot. And if the Cubs and Mets keep circling, that price tag might just turn into a deadline frenzy.

Injuries force Mets into win-now mode

The Mets didn’t plan to limp into July, but the injury list tells a brutal story. Kodai Senga is still working his way back in Double-A, Sean Manaea is targeting a return just before the All-Star break, and the bullpen has been patchworked with call-ups and spot duty. It’s no secret: the rotation is running on fumes, and the relief corps is barely hanging on. For a team that entered the season with playoff hopes, the margin for error is gone, and the Mets need serious reinforcement, fast.

That’s where Mitch Keller comes in. He’s not just a name in rumors; he’s a durable, mid-rotation arm with experience, control, and results. With a 3.64 ERA and 12 quality starts already this season, Keller could give the Mets exactly what they need: a dependable presence every fifth day. In a “win-now” year with fading patience from both ownership and fans, plugging Keller into the rotation instantly stabilizes the situation and allows the rest of the staff to breathe.

But it’s not a free ride. Keller is in year two of a five-year, $77 million deal, which means any team that acquires him takes on three more seasons beyond 2025. While money isn’t an issue for Steve Cohen’s Mets, the real cost is prospects, and the Pirates will want a haul. If New York decides to make the move, it likely means parting with high-upside arms like Jonah Tong or Nolan McLean.

It’s a gamble. But for a team in survival mode, it might be the kind they’re forced to take.