The Houston Astros have been linked to October baseball for nearly a decade, but the tables may be turning against them. After years of dominance in the AL West, their grip on the division has started to fall, and the latest setback could prove to be the most shocking for all. Just when they thought they had found stability in their rotation, misfortune struck once again.

Luis Garcia, Houston’s $1.8 million right-hander who came back from Tommy John surgery, was expected to provide a late-season boost. Instead, his long-awaited return has ended in grief. After making just his second start since April 2023, Garcia was forced to exit with right elbow discomfort, a devastating blow for both player and franchise. “How bad did you feel for Garcia last night?” Trevor Plouffe voiced on JM Baseball. “It was just his second start after working for 28 months to get back from Tommy John surgery. He left with discomfort in his right elbow. The minute he came out, you could just feel… how devastating. I feel terrible for him.”

The Astros are not losing a minute making the call. On Wednesday, Garcia was placed on the 15-day injured list, less than two weeks after his long-awaited revival. Even in the best-case scenario, he would not be eligible to return until there are just four games left in the regular season. For a club clinging to a one-game lead over Seattle, that timeline all but erases hopes of Garcia playing a meaningful role in the postseason push. As Trevor Plouffe honestly put it, “They’re bleeding out right now, Chris. That’s what it seems like, right?”

The timing could not be worse. The Astros have lost Yordan Álvarez for chunks of the season and endured setbacks to Spencer Arrighetti, Lance McCullers Jr., Hayden Wesneski, and Ronel Blanco. The rotation was once-feared; however, currently it has just three reliable stars and it has left the bullpen to shoulder a burden it simply can not sustain. “They’ve got, you know, three guys they can rely on in that rotation right now. The bullpen is taking a hit,” JM baseball hosts highlighted. “Everything’s kind of gone wrong for them.”

Data tells the story just as well as the injuries. As per FanGraphs, the Mariners now have an 86 percent scope of making the playoffs compared to the Astros’ 79 percent. Since the trade deadline, the team has played 36 games and scored three or fewer runs in half of them. Over the Astros’ last 55 contests, the team has gone just 23–32 and this record is worse than almost every AL team except the Twins and Rays and the Astros’ remaining schedule contains three games against the Texas and three more against the Mariners. “For an organization that is used to trying to set its playoff rotation at this point most years, they’re going to be hanging on for dear life,” the hosts at JM baseball observed.

Garcia’s setback only enhances the Astros’ fragile state. Once an elite star of the rotation, the Venezuelan righty looked poised to write his comeback story when he threw six powerful innings in his Sept. 1 return against the Angels. Instead, the star’s season and the Astros’ streak of eight straight postseason berths have been thrown into scrutiny. With just 17 games left, the team sits 78-67, which is a razor-thin margin over the Mariners and the Rangers. For the first time in seasons, the concern is not whether the team can win it all, but whether the Astros can survive September.

The Astros’ rotation difficulty was already painting a gloomy picture, but the situation has grown even more complex with the bullpen facing its own crisis. Just as Houston’s margin for error shrank, the franchise was dealt another crushing blow involving its most reliable arm.

Astros face uncertainty after Josh Hader injury leaves bullpen in flux

The Astros bullpen, once a source of stability, is now in disarray after All-MLB closer Josh Hader was shut down with a left shoulder strain. Joe Espada is now finding answers when the postseason is just weeks away. Without Hader, the team has lost not only their most trusted finisher, but also a mental edge in tight games, and it is a luxury few playoff-bound teams can afford to be without.

The front office has changed its attention to internal solutions, with Bryan Abreu coming as the leading prospect to step into the ninth-inning role. Abreu has been one of the Astros’ most reliable arms, striking out nearly 100 batters while posting a strong ERA across more than 60 appearances. His stuff plays at the back end of games, but the pressure of looming October matchups will be an entirely different exam.

In the meantime, Houston has also leaned on veteran Craig Kimbrel, who joined the roster in late-season desperation. Kimbrel has delivered encouraging results in his limited outings, looking steady in high-leverage spots and flashing the balance that once made him one of the most feared closers in baseball. Still, trusting him in the biggest moments could be risky given the volatility that has defined the twilight years of his career.

The timing of Hader’s injury could not be worse. The Astros are just 4-6 in their last 10 games, and their once-safety grip on the AL West has been reduced to a single game over the surging Seattle Mariners. With both their rotation and bullpen compromised, Houston’s playoff fate now hangs in the balance, and every decision Espada makes in September could mandate whether their October streak survives.