The New York Yankees are walking on eggshells currently. Every step they take will have a profound impact on their future. While the team started Spring Training hoping to regain their superiority, things cooled off quickly. Partly because their pitching staff isn’t firing on all cylinders yet. But mostly because Gerrit Cole is now injured. And with that throwing most of Pinstripes’ plans out of the window one wonders what’s next. 

That’s the question that is on everyone’s mind. Despite Cole’s diagnosis painting a positive picture, it still comes with many question marks. The biggest is what the Bombers will do in those 2 months of Cole’s absence. Even more importantly, are they prepared for the fact that things could still become worse for them?

Gerrit Cole’s injury – a big reset for many predictions

Before Cole’s UCL became stressed, nearly every prediction put him in the driver’s seat for the AL Cy Young award. It was on the back of this prediction that the Yankees’ playoff chances skyrocketed. However, this injury has not only eliminated Cole from that race but has affected the Bronx Bombers’ chances as well. 

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While fantasy baseball players worldwide are in a state of shock, it’s something that was bound to happen. According to The Athletic, out of the top 10 fantasy starters last season, only 3 managed to live up to their hype. Putting too much stock on starting pitchers has always been a risky bet due to higher-than-average chances of injury to them. 

And the Yankees have a bet of their own. While Cole’s MRI has suggested that he won’t need a Tommy John, there’s still some stress on his UCL. Mostly that is a precursor for a bigger tear later on (sometimes it isn’t – see Masahiro Tanaka). Now one isn’t predicting that it’s bound to happen here but one can imagine that the Yankees will keep things slow. In that case, they need their other pitchers to pick up more weight. But with two pitchers returning from injury, that’s a tough ask. Especially as the Bronx Bombers are a very top-heavy side.

New York Yankees’ top heaviness comes to haunt them

According to Fangraphs – An all-fit Yankees is projected to have a win percentage of .549. That’s good enough to make them win the AL East division. However, injury to just 2 of their top players pummels that number to .504. Make that number 3 and their win percentage goes down to .494. This is a top-heavy side and it completely collapses in the absence of its biggest stars.

So is it a surprise that the playoff chances of the Bombers have reduced from 74.4% to 71.9% after Cole’s injury? As a result, even if he’s gone just for 1-2 months, the Yankees have a huge headache to deal with. In a make-or-break season, they’ve suddenly found themselves stuck on a massive puzzle. Will they succeed? Only time will tell.

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