Forget Paul Skenes. According to one MLB insider, the path to the NL Cy Young runs through Miami, and it belongs to a $56 million arm looking to reclaim his throne. Although the chosen one didn’t really dominate last season, predictions suggest a wide-open race for the award in 2026.
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“The Miami Marlins will win the NL East, and Sandy Alcantara will win the NL Cy Young,” analyst AJ Mass made a bold claim after just 12 games in the season.
Sandy Alcantara is the starting pitcher who joined the Marlins in December 2017. He showed gradual progress, and in December 2021, the franchise offered him a 5-year, $56 million deal with a club option for the sixth year.
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Alcantara had the best season in 2022 with a 2.28 ERA and 207 strikeouts, which earned him the NL Cy Young award. The insider isn’t betting on someone who is rather new to the race. And Alcantara has impressive stats early in this season. He has a 2-0 record so far with a 0.74 ERA and 18 strikeouts in 3 games so far.
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Mass further backed his claim, saying, “He won the Cy Young in 2022 with a Marlins team that won just 69 games. Surely, the path to more hardware is a lot easier on a team that wins around 90.”
The Marlins have won 7 out of 12 games, and are sitting just below the Braves in the NL East. But Sandy Alcantara isn’t the only contender for the award.
23-yo Paul Skenes is the Pirates’ SP with strong expectations as well. Although he doesn’t have impressive numbers early in this season, his 2.08 career ERA and 398 strikeouts make him a favorite in the Cy Young race.
Skenes had commendable outings in the first 2 seasons after his MLB debut in 2024. However, his form has dipped this season, recording a 5.25 ERA with only 12 Ks. Although he is still considered an elite pitcher, the insider implied he is not untouchable.
Mass doubled down on the Marlins, mentioning the young roster’s potential. They are not heavily dependent on star players like many other teams.
It shows great possibilities for the pitcher and the team this year. But the contention for the Cy Young award isn’t necessarily a two-man scene.
The Sandy Alcantara prediction is still a tough call amid a competitive NL race
Paul Skenes isn’t the only competition for Alcantara. Powerhouses like the Phillies, Mets, and Braves can always dilute the chances for the Marlins as the season settles in. And the NL race is way tougher with the Dodgers winning back-to-back World Series in the last two years.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto is one of the contenders who earned third place last year with 72 points. He was just behind the Phillies’ Cristopher Sánchez with 120 points. As of April 8, the betting odds are +320 to +350 for Sanchez as he emerges as a new favorite after a strong start in 2026. Yamamoto’s odds are between +400 and +550 as the third betting favorite behind Skenes.
Paul Skenes was the top pick to win the Cy Young award this year since he just took it home in 2025 with 210 points. But his rocky start to the 2026 season has cast some doubt about his chances. TPlus, guys like Logan Webb and Chris Sale are pitching great and are also contenders.
As for Sandy Alcantara, the path isn’t as easy as Mass made it sound. However, his early 2026 form and having an insider back him, definitely make the whole Cy Young race worth watching.
Written by
Edited by
Arunaditya Aima