Why Juan Soto’s First Mets Season Feels Cold Despite MVP Numbers Just Behind Judge and Ohtani?

“Thrilled to death,” those were the words of Steve Cohen when the Mets signed Juan Soto to a record-breaking 15-year, $765M contract. When Soto came to Queens after playing in the World Series with the Yankees, expectations were high for the outfielder whose bat seemed to be able to change games. However, as the season unfolded, the data depict a different picture.

The 26-year-old phenom has been hitting well lately, with a .333 batting average, 8 home runs, 21 RBIs, and 20 runs scored in his last 20 games. And talking about this season, in 148 games, he is .262/.396/.525 with 40 homers, 98 RBIs, a career-high 32 stolen bases, and a league-leading 119 walks. Even with that hot streak, there are things about Soto’s game that analysts don’t seem to like. Soto gets a lot of his runs via home runs and walks, not from the steady stream of singles and doubles that fans love to see every day. When he’s not hitting home runs or working on long counts, parts of his performance can seem quiet.

MLB Network analyst Brian Kenny didn’t mince words when breaking down why Juan Soto’s season feels underwhelming despite elite numbers during Tuesday’s MLB Now broadcast. He said, “Day-to-day, that plays. Now, walks are undervalued historically. That explains this view of Soto a little bit.” But Kenny’s analysis runs deeper.

The worries about Soto’s glove work became more real. “Normally, guys with bad reads, they lack range. With Soto, it’s more than that,” Kenny explained. “There are bad reads, bad jumps, struck balls over his head, misread, doubles turned into triples.” These insights are backed up by the defensive metrics— Soto’s defensive run value is currently at negative 11, which is a big decline from his league-average stats with the Yankees. But now?

His Outs Above Average splits show that he has difficulties with balls that are slashing down the right-field line or that are dropping steps. He has a -8 against right-handed batters and a -1 against left-handed batters. That’s when “a double becomes a triple.”

And we have seen it! Remember, the seventh inning against the Padres, back in May? Soto’s mistake transformed what should have been a simple fly ball into a costly extra-base hit, changing the course of the game. Over the course of a complete season, these moments add up, making it seem like something is lacking from his total influence, even though he is a great offensive player.

However, the other side tells a different story. Soto has the most walks and the best on-base percentage in the league. He is in the top 5 in OPS+ (around 160), fourth in runs created, third in win probability contributed, and close to the top in run expectancy. A lot of these offensive stats show that only Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani are clearly ahead of him.

The “cold” feeling around Soto’s otherwise great season comes from the mix of quiet stretches and defensive mistakes. While issues continue to swirl around Juan Soto’s first season in Queens, his recent milestone achievement serves as a powerful reminder of his exceptional talent.

Joining Bonds & Bagwell: Juan Soto’s power-walk milestone

Juan Soto just put his name next to those of baseball greats, despite all the discussion about defensive mistakes and quiet offensive stretches, with the 40-30-110 milestone he just achieved against the Rangers, while the Mets are making a playoff push.

In the seventh inning of a game against the Texas Rangers at Citi Field, Juan Soto blasted his 40th home shot of the season. It was a solo home run that made the milestone in a 3-2 loss to the Rangers. He has also stolen more than 30 bases and walked more than 110 times this year, showing off his power, speed, and plate discipline all in one season.

Soto made history with his home run and those other figures. He was the first Met ever to have a season with 40 home runs and 30 stolen bases. He became one of the best MLB players to do that, along with Barry Bonds and Jeff Bagwell, who both had 110 or more walks that season.

As Soto keeps rewriting record books and getting criticized for defensive mistakes and silent spells, the discussion gets more heated: Is it okay to accept imperfections in elite productivity? Or should a $765 million investment guarantee perfection in every part of the game?