Few drivers know how to keep fans guessing quite like Denny Hamlin. And in 2025, he’s made it downright impossible to predict what’s coming next. After the shock of FedEx stepping away from Joe Gibbs Racing at the end of last season, many expected Hamlin’s legendary No. 11 team to wobble completely. Instead, the year has become a rollercoaster. From experiencing his first win of the season to eventually getting multiple ones, it’s been one hell of a ride for him.

Now, as the regular season comes to an end, the Joe Gibbs Racing driver isn’t chasing headlines. Rather, Hamlin’s now chasing points, wins, and one last shot at securing the regular-season crown before the playoffs kick in. And as for his mindset? Let’s just say his outlook (in just eight words) might surprise you.

Denny Hamlin’s uphill climb to regular-season glory

“Is the 11 car leading the standings now?” Denny Hamlin asked with a grin after the Brickyard. The answer, from Jared Allen, was swift: “No, you’re six back.” And just like that, reality set in. Despite racking up four wins and 12 top-10s this season, Hamlin finds himself trailing in the regular-season points battle heading into the final stretch. He currently sits fourth in the driver standings, just behind Kyle Larson, William Byron, and leader Chase Elliott. It’s a tight race.

A pivotal moment this season came when Martin Truex Jr. replaced Hamlin in the Mexico race. Remember Hamlin missing it for the birth of his son? Now, the No. 11 wasn’t in the seat, and Truex’s effort yielded zero championship points, leaving Hamlin lamenting (jokingly), “Truex didn’t give me enough points then.” With only one start and no point to show for it, Truex’s substitute outing gave Hamlin little help in the title chase.

With four races to go, Iowa, Watkins Glen, Richmond, and Daytona, Hamlin knows the math isn’t in his favor. “I’m behind, not ahead,” he admitted. “So, I’m probably going to need a little bit of help.” It’s a tough ask considering the competition. William Byron, Kyle Larson, and Christopher Bell all have good results (including wins) at these tracks. For Hamlin to jump ahead, he will need to rely on them to have a bad race(s) at the remaining races while managing to win or at least finish in the top-3s himself.

Since 2022, Denny Hamlin‘s been solid at Richmond (average finish: 5.0) and decent at Watkins Glen (15.0). But Daytona (26.6) and Iowa (24.0) haven’t been merciful, exactly. The key, Hamlin knows, is execution. “I just need to execute. I need to not crash my qualifying car. That would have helped,” he said, alluding to his mishap at Indy, where he wrecked in qualifying and still clawed back to a podium. But he knows if he wants the regular-season title, he’ll need a little luck. And, most importantly, fewer mistakes.

Denny Hamlin’s future in NASCAR

Denny Hamlin isn’t mincing words when it comes to his future in NASCAR (and the fate of the sport’s championship system). At 44 years old and with 58 career Cup wins, Hamlin remains one of NASCAR’s most successful drivers. But the elusive Cup Series title continues to cast a shadow over his legacy. Recently, Hamlin has made it clear that his motivation to race further hinges on NASCAR rethinking its championship format.

“If they get a legit format down, I might go longer because I feel like my chances would be better on a more typical sample size,” Hamlin said. “The one [championship] race, I don’t know. My chances are 25%. If you go to 36 races, I think my chances are better than that.” For Hamlin and many fans, the one-race format feels like a coin toss, rather than a reward for season-long excellence.

Denny Hamlin argues that this system undermines the credibility of the championship. It risks fan interest and leaving drivers, especially those at the twilight of their careers, with frustratingly slim odds. NASCAR, for its part, has acknowledged a need for change. They are reportedly in talks with broadcast partners (for a format change). However, Hamlin is wary of media influence holding back reform.

As the debate over legitimacy and entertainment continues, Hamlin’s stance is unwavering. He believes that a true champion should emerge from a full season, not a single headline. And for now, whether fans will see more seasons of Denny Hamlin may depend on NASCAR’s willingness to evolve.