Welcome to day one of the NBA offseason. The confetti have barely been swept off the Barclays Center floor after the draft. The Thunder are newly crowned champions, and the league is already in chaos. Kevin Durant’s heading to Houston. Desmond Bane is on his way to Orlando. Wild trades are flying. But for the Milwaukee Bucks, the real drama is not coming from the outside, but rather from within.

Why? Well, because while other teams are busy making splashy moves, the Bucks are standing still. But Giannis Antetokounmpo might not wait around. 

We have seen this before. Every time Giannis had to make a decision about his future, GM Jon Horst answered the call. In 2020, he brought in Jrue Holiday. Likewise, in 2023, it was Damian Lillard. Each time, Giannis responded with loyalty, signing extensions and reaffirming his commitment to Milwaukee. But this time around, it feels different. No, because Giannis is no less loyal. Not because Horst is any less aggressive. But because they are out of ammo.

See, the problem is, Jon Horst does not have the tools anymore. As Shams Charania said on ESPN’s Get Up about the Bucks, “they don’t have the necessary tools because they have gone all-in multiple, multiple times.”

And he is right. They have mortgaged their future to keep Giannis happy before. But now the cupboard is nearly bare. The Bucks’ only real trade assets? A few second-round picks. One first-rounder way down the line in 2031. A midlevel exception worth $14.1 million. The $7.2 million trade exception from the Khris Middleton trade. And salary filler like Pat Cannaughton, Kyle Kuzma, and maybe young prospects like Andre Jackson Jr. or AJ Green. 

While no one wants to see Giannis leave, even he has to wonder whether he can actually win with Milwaukee. Their prospects are not nearly enough to bring in the type of game-changing talent we have seen in previous years. Not Jrue Holiday, or Damian Lillard. In the meantime, key agents like Bobby Portis, Brook Lopez, Gary Trent Jr., and Kevin Porter Jr. are all up in the air. 

Similarly, the Bucks have not won a playoff series since their 2021 title run. They have flamed out in back-to-back first rounds. Dame’s dealing with an Achilles injury, and the rest of the roster, while talented, is aging and inflexible. However, Milwaukee still believes Giannis will be back. According to ESPN’s Bobby Marks, the team is “aggressively exploring” options to improve the roster around him. But improvement is easier said than done when you are stuck near the second apron with no high-value trade chips. 

Is Giannis demanding out from the Bucks’ roster?

Giannis Antetokounmpo has now been in Milwaukee for 12 years; that loyalty is not gone, but is being tested. “He was open-minded about exploring the best possible fits outside of Milwaukee. That’s a due diligence process he has undertaken, and everyone around him has undertaken, as well,” Shams reported.

“But again, he’s been there for twelve years, so there’s a level of equity in seeing what they can do at the draft, what moves they can make during free agency, and how they can improve the team Improve the team he has said on record he wants to compete for a second NBA championship.”

On top of that, Milwaukee does not have Bird Rights to offer competitive raises to keep them. The league has changed. The new CBA makes aggressive roster building more difficult than ever. The Bucks are over the cap, low on draft picks, and short on young stars. And when you are Giannis, an All-NBA First Team player averaging 30.4 points, 11.9 rebounds, and 6.5 assists, you are not thinking loyalty for loyalty’s sake. But you are thinking about the legacy you leave behind.

Charania believes that Giannis is watching the Bucks’ every move. But “ultimately, he will see how the Bucks look, how the chess pieces look across the league, and ultimately have some kind of resolution,” he said.

The Bucks’ only draft pick this year is No. 47 in the second round. Not exactly franchise-altering. So could the Milwaukee get back into the first round? Maybe. But it would take sacrificing future flexibility, and possibly assets they would rather hold for next summer.

When Dame and Kuzma’s contracts come off the books, they could pair three first-rounders in a larger deal. That’s the long game. But the question remains, will Giannis wait that long?