The Houston Rockets are staring at a puzzle they didn’t plan for, and Fred VanVleet is right at the center of it. His stat line rarely grabs the headlines, but the numbers underneath do. Since arriving in Houston, the team’s win total has leapt from 22 to 52. He ranked second in three-point attempts last season, launched nearly eight per night, and still found a way to average close to 19 points in the postseason. He even cooked the Warriors in a seven-game battle, hitting 64% from deep across the last four contests. That’s production you can’t just plug-and-play elsewhere. So how do the Rockets replace it, or do they even dare?

The dilemma is complicated by structure, not just injury reports. VanVleet’s deal isn’t like most. It’s a one-plus-one with a player option. Zach Lowe explained it best: “He has like a de facto no-trade clause because he’s on a one-plus-one player option deal.” Which means, he holds leverage, and Houston can’t just ship him out without considering the long-term consequences. That’s why names like Tari Eason pop up. Eason has become untouchable in some corners of the Rockets’ front office, and certainly in the fanbase.

Ryan even joked, “Can’t break up the Tari Twins.” The idea of flipping him for New York’s Deuce McBride and picks? Lowe flat-out admitted he wasn’t into it: “I might just be like way too high on Tari Eason… I’m not, not into that.” The bigger swing would be someone like Immanuel Quickley. On paper, he checks boxes: underrated, strong fit alongside Houston’s playmakers, and still only 25. But his contract muddies the waters.

Lowe pointed out the red flags: “Adding a 32 and a half million dollar point guard is problematic… this is a team that’s going to be up against all the aprons.” But Bill Simmons has previously pitched cheaper options. Peyton Pritchard, T.J. McConnell, guards who won’t break the bank or lock up future flexibility.

The Rockets, after all, have already stretched themselves thin with Kevin Durant’s arrival and Alperen Sengun’s rise. That’s why Lowe wondered aloud whether an aggressive trade makes more sense when the team is overachieving, not underachieving. “If you’re playing above expectations, you might be more apt to like, okay, maybe we should do something.” And that’s where Houston sits. A roster loaded with expectation, momentum on its side, but missing its steady hand at the point.

Fred VanVleet’s contract, Houston’s crossroads

VanVleet is 31, sitting on a two-year, $50 million deal with a player option. That option matters because it gives him freedom and leverage at the same time. Rich Paul structured it that way for a reason: ride this wave in Houston, then test the market in 2026 when the salary cap spikes. The Rockets get short-term stability, but no guarantees. That lack of certainty is why Houston can’t just lean on stopgaps.

They know what VanVleet provides. He organizes Durant, Sengün, and Amen Thompson. He carries playoff experience that the rest of the roster is still building. Without him, the Rockets’ offense shifts gears, and in the Western Conference, that lag gets punished. So what’s the play? Trading him isn’t simple. Trading around him might cost too much.

Standing at risk of wasting a year where Durant looks motivated and Sengün looks ready to leap. The Rockets’ front office doesn’t have the luxury of waiting for everything to align. Meanwhile, rival executives circle. Chicago, for example, lurks with intriguing options. Coby White and Ayo Dosunmu are both on team-friendly deals, both entering key contract stages. Houston could pivot there, but it means banking on younger guards with less playoff pedigree. Do you gamble on upside, or do you hold firm on proven?

History says VanVleet thrives when underestimated. From undrafted rookie to NBA champion, from Toronto’s secondary option to Houston’s stabilizer, he’s made a career out of filling the gaps others overlook. But Houston can’t overlook the reality: a torn ACL, a complicated contract, and a roster that doesn’t want to take a step backward.

Maybe the genuine crisis isn’t just VanVleet’s injury. It’s the clock. The Rockets wanted to build for the now. Durant is 36, and the Western Conference feels more open than ever. Every decision they make this season will ripple into whether Houston stays in the mix or slips back into the middle pack. 

The Rockets don’t have a lot of margin for error. And with Fred VanVleet holding leverage on one side and Tari Eason’s untouchable tag on the other, the path forward is as cloudy as it is critical.