Los Angeles Lakers fans were on their feet at the Crypto.com Arena on Friday night watching as Luka Doncic led the team to a 125-122 victory over the Los Angeles Clippers, with the Slovenian superstar finishing with 38 points and 11 assists. Alongside Austin Reaves’ 29 points and LeBron James’ steady playmaking (11 assists), the Lakers looked convincing.

Or so it seems.

On nights like this, the trio looks unstoppable, being three creators who can score from anywhere, dish on a dime, and carry a franchise on their shoulders. They were the only players on the Lakers team to play over 30 minutes against the Clippers. With all three finally available together, the offense finally has structure. However, looking at the Western Conference standings post-NBA All-Star break, the picture tells a different story. The Lakers own a 34-21 record and the fifth seed, a comfortable but not commanding position. 

The teams ahead of L.A — the Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, Denver Nuggets, and Houston Rockets — seem better suited in terms of championship contention, roster depth, and don’t rely on hero-ball to win. Doncic is leading the league in scoring, averaging 33.0 points per game, while Reaves is enjoying a career-high 25.6 points per game on an efficient 51% shooting. At 41, James no longer carries the scoring load nightly, but his playmaking still drives the team.

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Regular-season success with this group is easy to sell, as they have the capacity to see off games during this final stretch. However, the playoffs are a different beast, and stacked against the West’s elite, the 17-time champions still don’t look like favorites.

Why LA is a Long Shot to Win the West

History already delivered a warning label to the Lakers last spring.

They finished as the No. 3 seed and faced the Minnesota Timberwolves in the first round, which ended their season. Minnesota was one loss away from a play-in spot but surrendered just one Lakers win in five games. Despite a 37-point explosion from Doncic at home, the Wolves rolled to a massive 117-95 victory in Game 1. The Wolves owned the glass, punished their opponent in transition with a 25-6 edge, and blew the game open in the second and third quarters. 

In Game 4 in Minneapolis, the issues became clearer.

Los Angeles led by 10 entering the fourth, with Doncic going for 38 points again and James tallying 27 points and 12 rebounds. But the Lakers collapsed in the fourth quarter, scoring just 19 points. The Lakers failed to break 100 points in three of the five games, which is staggering when considering the fact that LA had two players who scored just under 40 in three games.

The Lakers traded for Doncic last season, and he is the hands-down main scoring option. He and James are two of the greatest creators alive, both used to over 30% usage rates for years. The emergence of Reaves this season has brought about a shift in the offensive strategy as the 27-year-old thrives as a tretiary initiator. It’s remarkable having three players who can take control of games on different nights; however, this overlap risks turning into isolation basketball once defenses tighten in the postseason.

The Lakers also fail the eye test defensively.

The numbers highlight the problem. They rank just 24th in defensive rating and carry only a +1.2 point differential, far behind true contenders like Denver (+4.8). If playoff games slow down and turn defensive, this becomes a real concern.

The supporting cast remains unpredictable. Rui Hachimura provides reliable shooting, but beyond him, the rotation fluctuates — Ayton’s impact varies, Knecht is inconsistent, Smart shows his age at times, Hayes lacks interior force, and Vanderbilt’s injuries and shooting limitations complicate lineups.

For LA, one bad shooting night or one slow rotation and the whole structure wobbles, especially with how the likes of Oklahoma City, elite on both ends, San Antonio, and even Minnesota can win some games without their superstars carrying the bulk of the load.