The Oklahoma City Thunder’s dominance didn’t come with any warning label. Just a few seasons ago, the franchise was in a tough rebuild, and now entering the final stretch of the season, the Thunder are defending their 2025 title and chasing the West’s first repeat in nearly a decade — but several contenders stand in the way. At 42-14 with the league’s only double-digit point differential, Oklahoma City is creating a gap over everyone else — and making itself every contender’s primary target.

But playoff series aren’t decided by standings, and three very different opponents — San Antonio, Denver and a potential dark horse — present real challenges. Each brings a unique stylistic test the defending champions must solve. Even during a rough last couple of months that have seen OKC reach 14 losses, only the San Antonio Spurs have come somewhat close, sitting six games behind at second  in the West and responsible for three Thunder losses this season.

With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assembling yet another marvelous season and a strong supporting cast of Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams, the Thunder have the best roster in the NBA. The depth behind the big three makes identifying their biggest threat the real question.

With a joint all-time league-best record of 24-1 after 25 games to start the season, there was a belief the Thunder could match or even better the Warriors’ 73-9 record. That record won’t be broken anymore, but looking at the bigger picture, OKC has bigger goals ahead and enters the postseason as the clear favorite.

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Why OKC Remains The Clear Title Favorite

Of course, the regular season and the playoffs are two different ball games, and defending a championship has proven to be a tall task in the past seven seasons. In fact, no champion has made it back to the NBA Finals in that period. However, Oklahoma City is operating on a level that the entire league is chasing. And judging by how well-drilled the franchise has become, another Finals appearance is a realistic expectation.

But it won’t come at the expense of steamrolling through the Western Conference. The closest team challenging the Thunder is  San Antonio, which is responsible for almost 30% of OKC’s losses this season, having beaten them on four out of five occasions. The head-to-head doesn’t favor the No. 1 seed; however, it doesn’t diminish the fact that the Thunder are the best in the West. 

San Antonio offers the most challenging upside thanks to the Victor Wembanyama factor. The 7-foot-2 French superstar is averaging a double-double this season, handles like a guard and stretches the floor like a wing. The Spurs are 8-2 in their last 10 games. His size and mobility directly disrupt OKC’s Holmgren lineups, making San Antonio a rare matchup problem.

The Denver Nuggets, led by Nikola Jokic, are a worthy foe. Assisted by Jamal Murray, who is having his most productive season, Jokic has the Nuggets sitting at the No. 3 seed in the West with a 35-20 record. It hasn’t been all rosy for Denver since that incredible championship run years ago, however, the franchise is a postseason regular and the opponent most comfortable slowing a series into half-court execution. But unlike the Spurs, Denver’s supporting cast has aged in key spots and they are without the same level of two-way versatility across the roster.

The Houston Rockets emerge as a true dark horse. Their athletic defense and transition scoring create volatility in a short series, but their half-court offense remains unproven in a long playoff series. And with the recent instability surrounding Houston, the team may not possess enough team chemistry to make it to the second round, let alone contend for a title.

The Minnesota Timberwolves led by Anthony Edwards and anchored by Rudy Gobert may also pose a threat, but they have also faced playoff stumbling blocks. The Wolves were thoroughly outplayed and dominated by the Thunder last spring. But beating Oklahoma City four times in seven games is a different challenge entirely.

Ultimately, a team like Oklahoma City presents such a slim margin for error for the opponent. The Thunder have the reigning MVP (who is on his way to consecutive honors), two supporting All-Stars and a cavalcade of depth that delivers suffocating defense and connectedness. 

During their championship run, Oklahoma City survived a razor-close series against Denver that revealed the few weaknesses opponents now study. They won’t make those same mistakes this time around, because experience and savvy are now on their side. Even in the Finals, late-game execution occasionally wavered — something challengers hope to exploit. 

Oklahoma City enters the postseason as the conference favorite — but matchups, not records, decide champions. A repeat would require solving every style the West can present. San Antonio tests their structure, Denver tests their composure, and a dark horse tests their margin for error. One of them will ultimately determine whether the Thunder repeat.